Empirical Study On Changing Tendency And Influencing Factors Of Coal Price In China

Coal is the safest, most economically and reliable energy resource in China. To make sure of the development of economy in China in future 50 years, the coal would take the most important part in the market for a long time. Coal price is an important factor in the coal market, the fluctuation of which not only affects the supply and demand balance in coal market, adjustment amplitude of industrial structure and the fluctuation of other energy resources market. Forecasting and mastering coal price fluctuation trend and its influential factors scientifically, especially recent changing tendency can make the coal enterprise after damage and avoid damage and also gain the initiative of market to win benefit for coal enterprise. In additional, it supplies scientific scrutiny for national macro-control policy to national energy market.On the basis of current research status at home and broad, this paper uses the method of econometric, takes the historic coal price as a sample series to analyze the changing tendency of coal price by establishing time series model and the relationship of the coal price and the influential factors by quantitative method. The main conclusion of this paper are as follows:1. Taking the historical coal price in Qinhuangdao as an example, we establish a short-term variation model which turns out that the model can better fit the changing process of coal price and the forecast coincides with the actual price short-term tendency.2. Analyzing the major factors which influence coal price. By using error correction model and Granger causality tests to analyzing the relationship between coal price and its correlative factors, the result turns out that coal price would influents according to the quantity of demand and they have causal relationship with each other.As the most economically substitute resource of petroleum, coal price is affected by petroleum price.3. Use the liner regression to analyze the relationship between coal price and its downstream product price such as electric power price, construction materials price, metallurgical price and price of chemical industry. The result turns out that the downstream product price rising will drive coal price rising.4. Propose the countermeasure to stabilize coal price which has reference value for government regulation and coal enterprise to avoid market risk.