Releationship Between Alfalfa Supply And Demand In China

In 2012,China started "the revitalization of the dairy industry plan ",the emphasis of alfalfa were improved,the qualified enterprises and farmers have given preferential policy,the preferential policy makes the demand rapid quickly,the current alfalfa supply cannot meet the requirements.Restricted the dairy farming to improve the quality and benefits,as well as affect the development of alfalfa industry in China.This article mainly used net import dependence,econometric models and forecasting model to study the supply and demand relationship of alfalfa.Through analyzing the production and marketing of alfalfa seeds,alfalfa planting and commercial-grass,as well as import and export situation,found that domestic supply of alfalfa seeds is not meet the demand.The net import dependency of alfalfa is higher.With the development of the dairy industry and other farming industry,demand for alfalfa is increasing year by year,the supply and demand gap increases.Using panel data of Chinese main planting alfalfa provinces in 2001-2015,build the supply response model and demand model about alfalfa.The result shows that:alfalfa supply mainly influenced by previous purchase price,the previous planting area,the previous related commodity prices,it have obvious hysteresis.In terms of per yield,it mainly influenced by the purchase price,the previous yield,natural disasters and fertilization.The demand of alfalfa mainly influenced by the purchase price,the price of raw milk,cow stock,and the processing ability of the enterprise.Both long-term and short-term are lack of elasticity.The price elasticity of planting area is greater than per unit area yield elasticity.This means that production and processing of producers according to the price movements to master and regular planting areas is more efficient.Using the grey markov model and secondary exponential smoothing model to forecast the supply and demand of alfalfa.The result:supply and demand gap of alfalfa is increasing.In order to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of alfalfa,we put forward some policy suggestions,which can strengthen the cooperation between farmers and companies,encourage farmers to grow grass;Seize the main technology,strengthen innovation research and the construction of the market,improve the prevention level in risk,build a diversified mode of operation,and promote the production and sales integration.