Optimal Production Policies In Supply Chain Models Under Uncertainty

With the development of globalization,the research of supply chain management is confronted with uncertain circumstance in production.The main purpose of this paper is to analyse these decision processes of supply chain models that are influenced by the diverse individual demands and the purchase behaviors of the consumers.Theoretically,the production modes can be roughly divided into MTO mode and MTS mode.Since the development tendency of demand is various,it is more difficult to predict the demand in MTS production mode.Thus,in the second charpter the MTO production model with certain flexible production capacity is proposed.In this case,it considers the demands of two kinds of products come randomly in limited time periods,then work out its optimal production policy correspondingly.After the optimal policy is proved existing,some certain nature character of this optimal minimizer is analyzed.It can be seen that the optimal minimizer is a decreasing function of the product quantity backlogged.In addition,to increase or decrease the backlogged quantity,the optimal solution is considered to decrease at a certain rate.In the third chapter,based on the model with random yield,the retailer takes the bounded rationality in the purchase process of consumers in order to predict the demand in his sale stage.For the predicted order quantity,the model analyze the optimal production strategy of manufacture with random yield risk.By calculation,the optimal production can be formulated and the analysis of the corresponding parameter is given.Then it tries to coordinate the supply chain by making the risk sharing cooperative contract.Each model has given its numerical examples to analyse the influence of parameters on the optimal policy.Finally,in the last chapter,the conclusion,some shortcomings and the future related research are summarized.