Research Of The Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate And International Oil Price Fluctuation On Stock Prices Of Listed Airlines In China

Since July 21st 2005,the reform of RMB exchange rate has began,the RMB exchange rate fluctuation problem has attracted more and more attention.As is known,China is an oil importer with the needs of economic development,not only various industries have increasingly strong demand for oil,but the international oil price changes also have a significant impact on the economic development of our country.Due to the particularity,the development of the aviation industry has been heavily influenced by exchange rate and international oil prices.The RMB exchange rate fluctuations affect the exchange gains and losses of airlines,the international oil price changes affect the operating costs of airlines.Whether the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and internatlional oil price would affect the profitability of airlines?If there is an influence,what about the path and how?In addition,would the airlines' share prices also be influenced?This thesis will probe into the influence that the listed airline shares have had from RMB exchange rate fluctuations and international oil price changes through combining qualitative and quantitative research.First of all,it will concerns about the path and effect by qualitative research.Secondly,find out the effect from RMB exchange rate fluctuation and international oil price changes on the listed airline shares through the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test,co-integration test,VAR model,VEC model,impulse response function and variance decomposition method.Finally it comes to the conclusion with combining the real situations of Chinese airlines,the feasible suggestions for the sake of avoiding currency fluctuations and international oil price changes have been put forward.