Research On The Impact Of The International Oil Price Fluctuations On Oil Companies Performance

Oil as one of the main energy in the national economic development,its price fluctuations will lead to a series of chain reaction,which is in the stage of high-speed development in our country,the demand for oil is increasing year by year,the adverse effects of oil price fluctuations will direct threat to the national development strategy.As part of the first price volatility transmission chain,speed of response to oil price fluctuation and petroleum enterprise strategy is directly related to its own survival and development as well as the country's economic stability in other industries.A recent oil price fluctuations began in 2014,a significant decline in international oil prices in the second half of 2014 and remain weak in 2015,has made the major international oil companies' profits,and thus affect the whole industry chain,such as mining,oil refining,petrochemical and other industries,cause many enterprises increased borrowing,facing bankruptcy,including some international big company.How oil companies respond to volatility in oil prices,especially in lower oil prices,has become a hot topic.The theoretical analysis of the economic effects of oil price fluctuations are mostly concentrated in the macroscopic field,this paper use mathematical modeling to the economic impact of the oil price fluctuations into the enterprise level,for enterprise decision-making to provide the reference basis.Based on enterprise performance analysis method and the oil price fluctuation theory as the theoretical basis,the existing enterprise performance evaluation method and the oil price fluctuations on oil companies benefit related literature,the influence of the profitability of the enterprise performance,enterprise performance evaluation theory,enterprise performance evaluation method of these three concepts are expounded and compared,identified in this paper,the empirical research method of enterprise performance measurement.By analyzing the history and status quo of oil price fluctuations,oil price fluctuations on the plate impact oil industry in our country,combining with the 2007-12,2015 samples of 22 financial indicators of panel data,by descriptive statistics analysis,principal component analysis(pca),integrated performance estimation,regression analysis and other mathematical methods,the quantitative analysis of the influence of international oil price fluctuations on oil companies performance,and use the fixed effects regression model to explore the oil and changes in the relationship between the upstream and downstream enterprise performance,and the use of quadratic curve regression model analysis of oil companies and the change of relationship between annual performance.Based on the theory and the actual data,the relationship model of oil price fluctuation and enterprise performance is obtained by analyzing and summarizing.Using the model,the oil companies provide the basis for decision and give advice.