The Research Of Residential Natural Gas Ladder Pricing Policy Based On Users' Demand Analysis

Energy structure adjustment and the requirement of low carbon economy development led to the rapid growth of natural gas consumption in our country.The shortcomings of traditional resident's "low price" policy is gradually highlight,in order to solve the problem of cross subsidy,reflect social justice,and guide resident to save natural gas reasonably at the same time,National Development and Reform Commission issued " Guidance of establish and perfect the system of residential natural gas ladder price ".But under the principle of "ensure the basic natural gas demand ",the ladder of the current natural gas ladder price is relatively "moderate",its effect is also needs to be inspection.User's demand elasticity and price affordability is one of the important factors influencing residential energy price reform.This article estimates the natural gas demand elasticity and price affordability of different income level resident,we analysis the problems of natural gas ladder price policy based on the research conclusion,and put forward the corresponding improvement measures.Taking Beijing as an example,we using ELES model to estimate the natural gas demand income elasticity and price elasticity of different income level residential user,firstly.Secondly,we build the natural gas price affordability model(EIR-ELES),based on expenditure income ratio method(EIR)and extended linear expenditure system(ELES).Then,we calculate the Beijing's natural gas price affordability of different income level residential user,and predict residential natural gas price affordability from 2016 to 2020.The results showed that: 1)residential natural gas demand is not sensitive to income and price;the absolute value of natural gas demand price elasticity is higher than the income elasticity of different income level residential users;the higher the income,the higher the demand income elasticity and price elasticity is.2)the natural gas price affordability of residential users between 3.82 to 10.4 yuan/m3,and the higher the income level,the higher the gas price affordability is.The prediction of residential natural gas price affordability is rising year by year from 2016 to 2020,the high-income families and low-income families affordability spreads increase year by year.3)the average per household basic demand for natural gas of different income level residential users is smaller,and with the growth of the residential natural gas price affordability,the demand of natural gas is rising.In combination with the results of this paper,from two angles of gas price and gas consumption,analyzing natural gas ladder price policy.We found that the first and the second gas price gap is smaller,the third gas price level is not high,and the first gas consumption set too high,ladder price first gear range is too big.So,this paper suggest to perfect the ladder price policy from gas price,gas consumption,gas measurement cycle and numbers of classification,establish a dynamic adjustment mechanism of natural gas ladder price policy.