An Empirical Analysis Of The Tertiary Industry In Shandong Province

Generally speaking,the proportion of the tertiary industries is an important symbol to measure a country's level of development and sophistication.According to the National Bureau of Statistics,China's GDP was 68263510 million Yuan in2015.Among of them,the proportion of the tertiary industries added value was50.2%,which marks that China's economy officially entered the times of service,and that the tertiary industries has become a new impetus to China's economic growth under the new normal and the locomotive of a new round of economic growth.Shandong Province,as a province of heavy industry,is facing many problems,such as the unreasonable industrial structure,lack of power consumption growth;resource and environmental constraints intensified.Therefore,we need to adjust the industrial structure to accelerate the development of the third industry and stimulate economic growth,so that the third industry becomes the driving force of economic growth in Shandong province.The paper is to establish the time series model of the increments of third industrial in Shandong province and analyze the influence of the third industry on employment personnel.This dissertation is divided into five chapters totally.The first chapter introduced the research background and significance of the third industry and summarized the existing research results on the third industry.In the second chapter,the basic knowledge of the stationary time series model and Vector Autoregressive(VAR)model were presented,then some principles,processes and parameter estimation of modeling procedure.In the third chapter,we constructed the time series model with the data in 1978-2014 of the third industry in Shandong province.After the data preprocessing we got a stationary sequence.With autocorrelation test and partial autocorrelation test,we established the ARIMA model,of which the order was determined by AIC criterion.Then the adaptive test and stability test of the model were carried out to show that the model was fitted well.Finally we forecast the value of the third industry in the year of2015 and 2016.In the fourth chapter we established the VAR model to analyze the impact of the third industry on employment,and put forward some suggestions based on the analysis results.In the end of the paper,we summarized the main results of the research and gave some suggestions on the development of the third industry in Shandong Province.