Empirical Research And Prediction On The Tertiary Industry Development To Promote Employment Growth In Shanxi Province

Employment problem is a common problem in the Country's economic development, it is related to the development of national economy and social stability, Western economics has always been regarded as full employment to the primary target of economic policy. There are abundant labor resources in China, which is a larger employment pressure country in the world, how to adjust the industrial structure to ease the employment pressure, is currently an important issue in economic development. Practice of economic development proved that the transfer of labor between the industries will eventually flow to the tertiary industry. The tertiary industry is an industry that is less investment, quick, strong ability to absorb employment. In recent years, our country has achieved rapid economic growth and further enhanced the economic strength of economic growth, while the tertiary industry has made tremendous development. The rapid developments of tertiary industry broaden employment channels, increased jobs, and achieved economic growth and employment in parallel.Because of its unique natural resources in Shanxi province, from a practical point of view, the secondary industry is more developed; primary industry and the tertiary industry are both lagging behind. Therefore, the distribution of employment in the three industries is mostly secondary industry, but with the industry structure continuously adjusts, the structure of employment is also changing, and the tertiary industry has become a major channel for creating jobs. In this paper, we take Shanxi Province as the research object, Select the data of the third industrial development and employment during reform and opening up to 30 years, with elastic analysis, factor analysis, super‐efficient DEA analysis do empirical study of the tertiary industry employment situation. Base on this research, to try DYNAMO simulation model to predict the tertiary industry employment in the next 10 years. Using Vensim_PLE simulation software to establish the circulation loop of the tertiary industry, it completely describes the interactive relationship between the economic development and employment growth, and puts forward high, medium and low three schemes about employment growth, and selects the best scheme according to the actual operation of the economy. Some enlightenment to us is: In order to ensure the sustainable and stably development of tertiary industry employment system, the speed and scale of economic development should be controlled to achieve full employment in good condition, in formulating economic development solutions.