China - GCC Analysis Of The Economic Effects Of Establishing A Free Trade Zone

Nowadays,the trend of globalization has been more and more fast.Every country wants to make a good combination with other countries so that can have a bigger market and more benefits.Because of the disruption of Doha Round negotiations,many countries want to develop agreement,including China.Although starting to build FTA later than other developed countries,China has been built 13 Free Trade Agreements with over 23 countries and districts,and there are 9 FTA negotiation,6 FTAs are studying.China-GCC FTA,as one of the most important FTA that China is negotiating.GCC is one of the districts that contains a big amount of petroleum oil and the 6 countries in GCC are very important petroleum exporter in the world.GCC has signed FTA with Syria and Lebanon,and in negotiation with EU,Japan,India,Turkey,China.If the China-GCC FTA were established,China can not only get enough importing petroleum,but also have a big foreign huge market and export more goods to make profits.I will the global trade analysis model(GTAP)and its database,combined with the dynamic recursive idea of Free Trade Agreement negotiations may result from simulation,and our economic development,import and export,social welfare and industrial productivity,and according to the simulation results analysis the economic effect.Divided into four schemes,the first scheme is China-GCC establishment a FTA,and all the goods tariffs to zero;the second scheme is China-GCC establishment a FTA,petrochemical products tariff reduced 50% and other goods tariffs to zero;the third scheme is China,India,Japan with GCC have establishment the FTA,and all the goods tariffs to zero;the fourth scheme is China,India,Japan with GCC have establishment the FTA,petrochemical products tariff reduced 50% and all the other goods tariffs to zero.We want to achieve the following research purposes:First,whether the petrochemical products tariff will affect the China-GCC FTA effect;Second,what are the economic changes of our country under the four schemes,how should we do.To complete these purpose,we combine normative analysis with empirical analysis.In the first part we analysis the background and the significance If the establishment of the CGFTA.The second part is the theory of regional integration in the classical theory of Free Trade Agreement is discussed in detail,the theoretical basis of the GTAP.The third part is the overview of the GCC countries,China and GCC economic and trade relations.The fourth part is the simulation results from the national economic growth,import and export changes,welfare and industrial productivity are analyzed.The fifth part is some suggestions base on the analysis results.The last part is a summary of the full text.