Research On The Early Warning Index System Of Local Government Debt Risk

October 2016,Minister of finance Lou Jiwei(G20)finance ministers and central bank governors meeting pointed out:China's central government debt is very healthy,accounting for 18%of GDP,the rapid expansion of the local debt problem is mainly.Although the total amount of local government debt risk is controllable,but the local risk has been highlighted,combined with the traditional industry overcapacity and economic cycle factors,local government debt risk must be taken seriously.PPP model will replace the local investment and financing platform to become an important way to resolve local government debt risk.The risk structure of local government debt will change,which puts forward new requirements for the construction of the early warning index system of local government debt risk.Risk warning index system simplification is difficult to meet the new requirements,the construction of risk early warning index system of cooperative multi-level establish collaborative integrated quantitative and risk early warning mechanism for local government debt risk.In the study,the theory of collaborative management and risk measurement theory are applied to the construction of the early warning index system of debt risk.The construction of the early warning index system of local government debt risk will play a guiding role in the early warning and prevention of local government debt risk.Combined with the present situation and the risk structure of the local government debt in China,using the AHP analytic hierarchy process to construct the model has certain practical significance to the construction of the early warning index system of the debt risk and the early warning of the risk.From the debt risk early warning index system of coordination theory of concepts related to local government debt risk early warning index system was defined,elaborated the connotation and classification of' local government debt risk,analysis of the local government debt risk early warning mechanism of constructing collaborative refers to the standard system,and the collaborative management theory,debt risk theory and risk measurement theories;describes the local government debt risk early warning index system of the collaborative situation,reveals the risk early-warning index system is not scientific,the construction of early warning indicators and single supporting measures are not perfect management problems,analyzes the causes of the problem;learn from the advanced experience of the United States of Ohio States,Australia.Brazil and India and other developed and developing countries in terms of debt risk early warning,proposed To improve the debt risk early warning evaluation index system,establish collaborative risk monitoring database,establish the full aperture budget constraint mechanism,establish conditions for cooperation and explore the structure of local government debt risk early warning Organization collaborative early warning linkage system and policy suggestions.