Study On The Evaluation And Early Warning Of Cultivated Land Safety In Shandong Province Based On Food Security Constraints

The safety of cultivated land is of great significance to the protection of food security and the sustainable and sustainable development of social economy.Shandong Province is an important agricultural production province in China,if the safety of arable land can not be effectively improved,the province and the country's food security and social stability will be threatened.Do a good job on the safety evaluation of the arable land and the analysis of police intelligence in order to analyze the factors of the safety of cultivated land in Shandong Province and take targeted measures to coordinate the relationship between people and people,the relationship between people and nature,protect the safety of cultivated land and realize the sustainable development of cultivated land.According to the meaning of cultivated land safety,this paper takes the safety of cultivated land quantity,the quality security of cultivated land and the ecological security of cultivated land as the guidelines layer of the index system,the social and economic functions of cultivated land and the factors of natural ecological function as the index layer of the index system,and constructs the framework of evaluation index system.In the specific indicators set,the natural ecological function is considered the natural environment of cultivated land conditions.Grain quantity and quality safety will have the restraint effect on cultivated land.In the selection of specific indicators,because the data of grain quality safety index is difficult to obtain,in this paper,we set up the safety evaluation index of cultivated land based on food safety constraints from the point of view of food quantity security constraints.Based on the theory of emergy,the index of cultivated land carrying capacity with abundant elements is set as emergy index.Based on the catastrophe theory,this paper evaluated the safety of cultivated land in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2015 by using the mutation series model,and predicted the safety situation of cultivated land in 2016-2020.In the application of the mutation series model,in order to avoid the subjective influence of the mutation series model on the importance ranking of the same index and the complementarity judgment of the index,this paper uses the principal component analysis to solve the problem of rank index ranking,and uses the correlation analysis to solve the index complementarity judgment.The results show that the safety of cultivated land in Shandong Province is declining,and there is a greater volatility in individual years.In the years of 2000-2015,the safety of cultivated land is within the range of heavy traffic,in the years of 2016-2020,cultivated land safety continued to decline and it is within the level of giant police.Through the analysis,it is found that agricultural disaster,lack of water resources and investment in agricultural machinery are the main factors influencing the safety of cultivated land inShandong Province.The safety of arable land involves the interests of the government,the enterprise and the individual farmer.They are the organic part of the safety system of the cultivated land.The failure of either party or the damage to the cultivated land will adversely affect the safety of the cultivated land.Based on the evaluation results,the following suggestions are put forward from the main stakeholders of the cultivated land-government,enterprises and individual farmers: the government should play the system security and policy monitoring function,improve the property right system,establish and improve the agricultural disaster management system,the construction of agricultural water conservancy project;the establishment of enterprise economic credit file can promote the development of agricultural economy,so that the external effect of cultivated land pollution become an internal effect;agricultural machinery "to the countryside" activities,professional personnel guidance and other measures can increase the knowledge of individual farmers,so that they scientifically manage the cultivated land.The measures taken by the three parties form a staggered impact,thus forming the composition of forces between government,enterprises and individual farmers of protection the safety of arable land.