Research On The Fluctuation Of China's Coal Supply In Industrial And Provincial Level Based On SAM

The resource endowment condition decides that coal resource is the main part of energy structure in our country.Along with the rising trend of clean energy,the development of coal industry has been greatly impacted.The contradiction between the uneven distribution of the existing coal resources and the level of economic development still exists.The fundamental goal of studying the trans-regional effect of coal supply is to optimize the trans-regional configuration of China's coal industry.Based on the theory of sustainable development,general equilibrium theory and input-output theory,through analyzing the current situation of the development of Chinese coal industry,found that there is excess capacity,low efficiency,serious business losses and the profitability of the industry such as the poor coal industry;based on the results of previous studies on carding,according to the 2010 Chinese 30 provinces and municipalities in the region input table of social accounting matrix output from the coal supply angle,analysis on the regional multiplier effect by multiplier analysis and path,confirmed it has an important impact on economic development,and to quantify the degree of influence.At the same time,the main influence paths are identified and the key nodes are searched to provide reference for optimizing the trans-regional configuration of coal.The results of multiplier analysis show that there is no obvious trans-regional flow of direct coal resources in China.Only the coal industry in Inner Mongolia and the coal sector in Shanxi have been directly transported to the coal sector in Hebei.In addition,the coal consumption of the industrial sector contributed to the major coal consumption.Path recognition results tell us that a path exists in the main coal power supply in the conduction process,and the overall effect of the corresponding province in three main supply pathway were the highest,with the largest proportion.This part of the application of scenario analysis to identify the high frequency circuit composite node exists in two scenarios of the key nodes identified include: the situation of chemical industry in Inner Mongolia,Shanxi Province,metal smelting and rolling processing industry and non-metallic mineral products industry,and general and special equipment manufacturing industry in Shaanxi province.Situation two identified the key nodes are: other services and transportation and warehousing industry,the two departments in different regions of the same path,high frequency.Finally,through the comparative analysis of the path multiplier,we find that the variable multiplier effect of coal supply in China is spread by many intermediate nodes,and indirectly enlarge its contribution to the overall effect.Based on the above analysis,this study analyzes the impact of China's coal supply changes on industry and regional distribution from the perspective of supply change.Put forward the following policy recommendations for the coal industry supply side reforms:(1)the optimization of production development layout,adjust the supply structure;(2)focus on the development of clean coal,coal breakthrough rely on technological progress by using the boundary;(3)multi dimension extension of the coal industry chain,industry focus on the transformation of key nodes.