Study On Adaptability Of Jujube Growers Under Climate Change

Climate change is a major global issue of common concern to the international community,and is one of the world's long time mankind will face enormous challenges.Third national assessment report on climate change "clearly pointed out: nearly a hundred years of the temperature has risen significantly over the past 30 years,the wetting degree in western arid and semi-arid areas to strengthen,the impact of climate change trend in China is the coexistence of advantages and disadvantages,generally more harm than good;extreme climate disasters intensified,seriously affect China's grain self-sufficiency rate.The natural conditions in the southern region of bad climate,especially the frequency of extreme weather,caused great harm to the local agricultural production.Understanding of climate change in southern Xinjiang especially extreme climate changes,make reasonable adjustment of the characteristics of fruit industry structure in the southern region,establish the warning mechanism of agriculture,improve the farmers to resist risks Ability is the key to realize sustainable development of characteristic forestry and fruit industry in southern Xinjiang.The southern region climate and agriculture has its particularity,this paper based on the analysis and adaptation to climate change in the southern areas of industry of red dates,red dates to farmers as the starting point,the typical red dates in South Xinjiang growers' production behavioral adaptation under the background of climate change;the analysis of climate change in Southern Xinjiang 1960-2014 trend and influence on red dates on the basis of production,describes the present situation of typical area of red dates farmers perception and adaptation to climate change,and briefly comment on these types of behavior,the core factors reveals the influence of growers adaptive behavior.The contents of this paper can be divided into 6 chapters.The first part is about the background and significance of the research,the impact of climate change on agricultural production and farmers blindly to put forward its own research ideas and research methods.The second part is the definition of relevant concept of adaptability,from a review of related research at home and abroad on several aspects we know,the production behavior of farmers to adapt to climate change by the local climate and geographical conditions,must be adapted to local conditions.The third part analyzes the trend of climate change in the southern region of1960-2014 and its impact to the local production of red dates.The fourth part mainly uses the DEA model to reveal the effect of climate and other environmental factors on the production efficiency of red dates.The fifth part of the comprehensive evaluation on climate change adaptation of typical planting in South Xinjiang.The first red dates of different types Farmers adapt to climate change,to reveal the second measures of adaptation to climate change,and analyzes the constraints of the southern growers take production behavior to adapt to climate change.The sixth part summarizes the research conclusion,according to the research conclusion and puts forward policy implications relative,"hope government technical experts-farmers can play a positive in responding to climate risk in the process of maintaining the stable production of red dates.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The climate of the southern Xinjiang region showed a trend of warm and humid,and the average annual temperature increased obviously with the temperature of 1.87 ? / 55 a.The total annual precipitation increased at the rate of 38.5mm / 55 a,The extreme high temperature and extreme rainfall were increased by 1.4 ? / 55 a,5.6mm / 55 a respectively,and the extreme low temperature was reduced by 1.6 ? / 55 a respectively,but the negative effect was too high.The increase rate of the number of days of extreme high temperature is about 4.5d / 55a;the frequency of extreme low temperature is about 7.3d / 55 a.Extreme precipitation days increased by 4.5d /55 a.(2)The climate of red dates phenophase also showed a trend of warm and humid,and the average temperature of the phenological period in the whole growth period from April to October increased steadily at the rate of 2.2 ? / 55 a,which was beneficial to the pollination and pollination of jujube And the average temperature of the young fruit increased at the rate of 0.7 ?/ 55 a.The precipitation increased rapidly with 16.5mm / 55 a,and the dry hot wind increased during the flowering period,resulting in the phenomenon of coke and falling fruit.The average temperature of the increase is 0.6 ? / 55 a,the maturity of the frost so that the early arrival of frost,so that the leaves of red dates,a large number of dry dates,The rate of increase in precipitation is 2.1 mm / 55 a.Continuous rainy weather intensified fruit jujube fruit cracking fruit,seriously affect the fruit color and normal development,affecting the fruit rate of jujube.(3)From the input-output structure of the growers in the sample area,the factor input of the whole sample area grows,with the factor input increasing by 9.8% between 2013 and 2015.The input factor is more serious than the normal value,15.2% ~ 16.3% higher than the normal value,the pesticide exceeded 18.7% ~ 36.2%;the total output of the sample area is getting lower and lower profits,the profit is getting smaller and smaller,Both jujube income fell 43.8%,mu net income fell from 468.71 yuan in 2013 to 2032.3 yuan in 2015.Increased input factors and declining returns in the sample area are the result of a double drop in price reduction and increased investment under climate change(4)After eliminating the environmental factors,it was found that the efficiency of the production technology of the jujube growers still had a large room for improvement.After adjusting the technical efficiency gap between the Corps and the local growers,the technological efficiency gap was further expanded from 0.04 to 0.11,and the comprehensive technical efficiency of the Corps growers was high In the local growers;both pure technical efficiency values have increased,but the pure technical efficiency of the Corps than the local 0.02.Once again,in the response to climate,growers have scientific planting techniques,to avoid risks,can be scientific to deal with extreme climate and other uncertain factors to bring the risk.(5)95% of the jujube growers in the sample area perceived climate change,accounting for57% of the response measures,20% and 37% of the pre-prophylaxis and ex post remediation actions,respectively;the adaptive behavior of the local jujube growers The difference was significant: the production experience of the farm workers was better and the management technology level was higher,up to 68.54% of the growers were coping,42% took the active response and the stop effect was obvious;28.7% The ability of farmers to move from passive remedy to proactive prevention and risk-taking is increased.Some farmers in remote and poor mountainous areas are lacking in technology and lack of capital investment,resulting in 90% of the farmers' awareness of the impact of climate change on jujube production Lack of assessment of the serious impact of climate risk,27% of the farmers to take measures to withstand the abilityof meteorological disasters is low,the response to the role of its production is not significant.(6)The influence of farmers on the climate change is affected by the age of the growers,the number of domestic farmers,the proportion of jujube income to the total household income,the age and scale of planting,the weather warning mechanism,the infrastructure and the satisfaction of obtaining meteorological information: The age of the growers,the degree of education,the national characteristics,the number of farmers,the years and the scale of planting,the proportion of jujube income to the total household income,the technical training,the meteorological information satisfaction,the infrastructure and the meteorological early warning mechanism The adaptive behavior of climate change has a positive effect,while the number of labor transfer has an inhibitory effect on the response of jujube.Local jujube growers' perceptions of climate change are influenced by the age of growers,the proportion of jujube income to the total household income,the age and scale of the planting.The number of farmers,the number of years of cultivation and the scale,the proportion of jujube income to the total household income,the technical training and intercropping,and the improvement of the "infrastructure construction" The proportion of farmers,the proportion of jujube,the age and scale of planting,the technical training,and the construction of weather warning mechanism.The measures of "increasing investment" are affected by the degree of education,To the impact of;education,the number of farmers,the proportion of jujube income,planting scale,technical training on the growers "learning new technology" to promote the role of labor transfer than the number of farmers to take coping behavior,in addition to " Ecological environment " measures,intercropping on other response measures is also an inhibitory effect.(7)At present,the adaptive behavior of the study area is mainly based on passive remedial measures,and the preventive measures are supplemented by the active measures.The adaptability of growers in the mixed areas is showing a good development trend.Some farmers in remote and poor mountainous areas are aware of the impact of climate change and the assessment of climate risk.