The Research On The Influence Of China's Shadow Banking On The Financial Stablity

The sudden outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 had different impacts on all countries in the world,which greatly increased people's attention to financial stability.The shadow banking,which was regarded as the trigger of the crisis,also attracted the attention of governments and academia.Developing rapidly in recent years,China's shadow banking scale,its hidden behind the risk is self-evident.As the product of financial innovation,shadow banking can promote economic development and enrich financial market players to a certain extent.At the same time,the evasion of regulation and high leverage level of shadow banking will also impact financial stability.Based on the existing literatures of various countries,this paper gives a theoretical introduction to the definition,classification,causes of formation and risks of shadow banking,and with reference to guo-feng sun(2015),divides China's shadow banking system into two categories,namely,off-balance sheet shadow banking of commercial Banks and traditional shadow banking.and due to the size of the former accounted for more than two-thirds of the total,so use it as a representative,developing the accounting principles of liability accounting method is used to measure the quarterly data from 2016 to 2019.According to the calculation,shadow banking in China is booming,reaching a peak of more than 40 trillion yuan at the end of 2016,a nearly tenfold increase compared with the initial stage of development.After that,elaborates the related theory of financial stability,and using principal component analysis to the macro economy,commercial Banks and financial environment of eleven secondary indexes such as extract,and our country from 2016 to 2019 is calculated quarterly comprehensive index to financial stability,illustrates China's financial stability development trend of the rise in the twists and turns.After the above theoretical analysis,two empirical hypotheses were proposed,and the dynamic impact of shadow banking on financial stability in China was further studied by using the VAR model.The conclusion was drawn that shadow banking in China mainly exerts negative effects,and that shadow banking has the property of time delay,and the influence degree increases as time goes by.At the end of this article,the author puts forward Suggestions on the development of shadow banking in China from three aspects: strengthening supervision,guiding the standardization of financial innovation and the reform of market interest rate,hoping to make the shadow banking system in China play a more positive role and develop steadily.