| March,2015, Hebei financial investment guarantee group, the largest Guarantee Corporation of Hebei, fell into bankruptcy and reorganization, Involving funds amounted to 50 billion yuan. And the Domino type of security storm related to about 50 institutions, including the trust company?bank?broker? fund company and P2P, which have been exposed to the risk exposure. This matter has made people pay more attention to the credit risk of the shadow banking.In the background of Interest rate marketization process to speed up, credit contraction and China's financial repression, China's shadow banking has developed rapidly. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences reported that the size of China's shadow banking up to 27 trillion yuan in 2014. FSB also claimed in the report that the size of China's shadow banking ranked third in the world. The rapid development of the shadow banking of China make the relevant authority both surprise and worry. Because the development of the shadow banking has its two sides. On the one hand, shadow banks can compete with traditional banks through flexible lending activities, and then ease the shortage of credit supply. At the same time, shadow banking can break the monopoly of the banking business, to promote the optimization of financial structure. On the other hand, as a product of financial innovation, shadow banking also has its risk of endogenous. Shadow banking will affect the stability of China's commercial banks, and even affect the healthy development of the entire financial system. So it is significant to study the influence of shadow banking on the stability of commercial bank.On the basis of drawing lessons from domestic and foreign research and achievements, combined with China's national conditions, this paper use the panel regression model to discusses how the shadow banking impact on traditional banks. And then propose the supervision suggestions of the shadow banking.In this paper, the scale of shadow banking includes commercial banks'wealth investment product, trust loans, entrusted loans and non-discounted bank acceptance bills of exchange. A common characteristic of the four parts of the shadow banking is closely linked with the traditional commercial banks, can be classified as traditional bank internal shadow banking business, so the influence of shadow banking to the commercial bank system is more valuable.Considering the multiple influence factors of commercial bank, combined with China's actual situation, this paper will use three aspects of a total of 11 indicators to analyze. Including GDP growth rate of three indicators to represent the macro economic factors, M2 growth rate and other 2 indexes as the representative of the financial environment factor, capital adequacy ratio and non-performing loan rate and other 3 indicators on behalf of the commercial banks operating conditions. Using "the index mapping interval marking method" to calculate the 2000-2015 years of China's commercial banks stability index. Then use the 17 Commercial banks' stability index as explanatory variables for the regression of GDP growth rate, the growth rate of M2 and CIP.The results shows that in the short term, shadow banking enhance the development of commercial banks, and improves the stability of commercial banks. But in the long-term, it will make the opposite effect. So the regulators should guide the development of shadow banking, in order to let it better serve the real economy.Out of the interest in this subject, I seriously study related content, and try to put forward valuable opinions and suggestions. But due to the limitation of research ability and writing level, some viewpoints may be superficial described. Please bear with me and give some guidance, thank you. |
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