Forecasting And Analysis Of Labor Supply And Demand In Anhui Province

According to the statistics,Anhui Province entered the aging society in 1998.While the aging level continued to deepen with time,the labor force reduced Correspondingly.The survey showed that the proportion of labor force in Anhui Province began to decline in 2010,dropping from 67.21%in 2010 to 63.3%in 2014.There was a significant decline in the number of young and middle-aged labor,and the population of 16-35 years of age decreased by 20-30 million per year.So it is important to make predictions on the labor force and to develop appropriate policies to deal with the follow-up problems.This paper describes and analyzes the current situation of labor supply and demand in Anhui Province firstly.The total population in anhui province are slowly rising from the point view of labor supply.There appears population aging trend,the 0-14 age group the proportion of the population declined rapidly,dropping from 25.49 in 2000 to 18.21%in 2015,reduced by about 7%.The proportion of the population aged 15-64 years accounted for about 70%and there is an upward trend,with the aging population in Anhui Province,the number of school-age population growth will gradually slow down.Population education has improved steadily,but higher education population proportion is still low overall cultural level of workers,education level is still relatively backward,the overall low quality of workers,in primary school and junior high school education,a high degree of talent shortage.From the point of view of labor demand,there was a steady growth of labor demand in Anhui.Rural workers accounted for the highest,especially in the 2000-2005 years,rural workers in the total number of employees accounted for more than 80%of the total,with the process of urbanization,rural employment proportion tends to decline,dropping from 81.8%in 2000 to 70.2%in 2015,the number of the second industry and the third industry population gradually increased,the first industry employment population the employment population decreased gradually.The employment population is shifting from the first industry to the second industry and the third industry.There was a rapid development of transportation,storage and postal industry.This paper predicts the supply and demand of labor force in Anhui Province from 2016 to 2025.In order to predict the supply on labor force,we first use the gray BP neural network algorithm to establish the GM(1,1)forecasting model on the factors such as resident population,birth rate,mortality rate,population inflow and population flow.And then we combine with BP neural network algorithm to join the trained five labor force factors,so as to predict the future development of labor force population.With the forecast of labor demand,we establish the regression model of regional gross,capital investment and technological progress based on the data of 2006-2015,and then establish the GM(1,1)forecasting model with the gray forecasting algorithm to predict the data of the total volume,capital investment and technological progress over the next 10 years.In order to predict the demand on labor force,we first set up the multiple linear regression model of regional demand,capital investment and technological progress based on the data of 2006-2415,and then establish the GM(1,1)forecasting model to predict the data of regional demand,capital investment and technological progress in the next 10 years.Substituting the regression model to get the labor demand of Anhui Province from 2016 to 2025.On the basis of the above analysis,this paper predicts the supply and demand gap of labor force in Anhui Province in the next 10 years,and finds that the shortage of labor force in Anhui Province is obvious in the next ten years.According to the results,this paper puts forward five suggestions about policy,including promote the national second child policy actively,improving the quality of laborers,improving the employment service system of the labor force,enhancing the working environment,raising the wages and promote multilevel professional education.