Forecasting Of Labor Supply And Demand In Zhejiang Province From 2010 To 2020

This article forecasts the amount between supply and demand of Zhejiang province during 2010 and 2020 with the help of abundant data covering from the fifth census and《Statistic Yearbook of Zhejiang Province》Few steps will be taken as the study of labor supply to be proceeded. Firstly, the author adopts Age Move Algorithm to reckon the population of various ages from 2010 to 2020 under a closed condition. Secondly, taking the situation of population migration into account is necessary. It uses Trend Equation Method to calculate the net ingoing number of future market which grounds on the data of net migration rate over years. Thirdly, the researcher formulates three possible states for the variation of labor participation rate by counting in the actual situation of economic development. Prediction results show that under the condition of higher labor participation rate, the labor supply will reach 46.24m by 2020.As to the analysis of labor demand, seeing the correlation between labor demand and economic development, the writer tend to utilize time series data to obtain economic growth in the future, and then put the calculus of differences and method of regression into use in order to measure the elasticity of employment in Zhejiang province. Capitalizing on such indicator, the research about labor demand will be achieved. It manifests that the labor demand in Zhejiang province is curling up and it will reach 44.82m by 2020.In the light of above predictive analysis, it arrives at a situation that comparing to the growing demand, labor supply growing appears insufficient. Which means that under the condition of higher labor participation rate circumstance of supply is more than demand. However, such gap is to be narrowed down to 3.34m by 2020. In addition, under the condition of moderate labor participation rate, the surplus between supply and demand would be shrinking faster. The estimated data will dip to 1.42m by 2020. While under the condition of lower labor participation rate, the growth of supply could not be more competitive with that of demand and the gap will show a reversed trend and keep enlarging. By the year of 2020, the number is going to reach 3.98m. Based on the result of quantitative analysis, this paper raises that establishing a reasonable policy on birth control and setting up an elastically migrant labor introducing mechanism is urgent and necessary for achieving blanced growth between labor supply and demand,also for sustainable development of economy.