The Impact Of International Oil Price Fluctuation On China's Foreign Trade

In the history of oil price fluctuation,there have been two oil crises,the first oil crisis caused a serious impact on the United States,resulting in a serious US economic contraction;the second oil crisis on the United States,Britain and other developed countries have a serious impact,Making the two countries' negative economic growth.Fluctuations in oil prices have an impact not only on individual countries but also on the world economy through linkages between countries.In the 21st century,economic globalization is still the main trend of world development.World trade and economic globalization are still developing continuously.The rapid development of Internet technology,transportation and communication costs continue to decline,the global value chain and the international supply chain in the production of goods more reflected in the cross-sectional sub-assembly,which is the world trade and economic globalization,a strong driving force for development.To sum up,in the context of increasingly close contacts between countries,the international oil price fluctuations for each country,especially in the process of industrialization have a profound impact.China's industrialization pace of development in the rapid development of oil is the blood of modern industry,rapid industrialization led to a surge in demand for oil imports in 2013,China's oil imports have Yueju ranks first in the world.Oil has become one of the most important energy sources in China,and is also an important strategic material.It is widely used in various fields of manufacturing industry,and also the main resource for China's import.To the crucial role.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the mechanism of the impact of international oil price fluctuations on China's foreign trade and the healthy development of China's macro-economy.On the basis of analyzing the present situation of domestic and foreign research,this paper discusses the formation process of oil price from the perspective of oil attribute and pricing mechanism,mainly from the scarcity of resources,monopoly oligarch pricing,oil dollar and politics.Then,taking the influence factors of oil fluctuation as the breakthrough point,combing the mechanism of oil price on China's foreign trade,there are two ideas:First,the impact on China's total foreign trade,industrial products occupy the main export trade,export of machinery and electronic products in 2015 And oil is the main source of China's imports of oil,oil prices will directly affect the import trade;Second,the impact of oil price fluctuations on China's trade non-existent,the impact of oil price fluctuations on China's exports;Symmetry,that is,the impact of rising oil prices on China's trade will be different from the impact of oil prices on China's trade range.This paper uses a series of statistical tests to describe the relationship between WTI oil price and import and export trade and causality,and establish the VAR equation between the three sequences for impulse function analysis and variance decomposition analysis.At the same time,the TARCH model of WTI oil price and China's import trade is established to examine the asymmetric impact of WTI oil price on China's foreign trade.The empirical results show that international oil price has strong correlation with China's import and export trade.From the empirical analysis of the VAR model,the export trade has a positive correlation with the lagging oil prices in the first and second stages,and negatively correlated with the oil prices lagging behind three,four and five periods.There was a positive correlation between import trade and lagged oil prices,and negative correlation with lagging two,three,four and five periods.The results of variance analysis show that the fluctuation of oil price fluctuates to 45%and 10%of the fluctuation of China's import and export trade,which shows that international oil price plays an important role in China's foreign trade development.From the empirical results of the EGARCH model,there is an asymmetric problem in the adjustment of WTI oil price shocks by export trade.WTI prices will appear when the export trade will be 0.09 times the impact of the impact;WTI price decline occurs when the export trade will be 0.71 times the impact of the impact of import trade on the impact of WTI oil price adjustment asymmetry is not obvious.Adjust the speed and the effect of the gap is not large.Finally,the author gives some suggestions.Oil enterprises need to deal with the trend of international oil price in time,do early warning and actively explore the ways to deal with the impact of oil price fluctuation on China's foreign trade and relevant countermeasures.