The Second-hand Housing Sales Price Index Trend Analysis And Forecast Of Tianjin

At present,with the relevant national real estate policy,the domestic real estate market on the second-hand housing transactions,the secondary market is gradually maturing,become with one hand housing market competition the market form of interdependence.This article through to the Tianjin second-hand housing sales price index for the real estate market trend,thus three months of Tianjin second-hand housing sales price index for the future.Taking Tianjin in April 2007 to September 2016 in Tianjin second-hand housing sales price index for monthly data as a time series,using the polynomial model,exponential model and ARIMA model,method of threshold auto-regressive model and other models,to the future of Tianjin second-hand housing sales price index for short term prediction,and puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.This paper innovation points are: first,the domestic literature of empirical analysis was studied for the new house price is more,but the second-hand housing prices is relatively lack of empirical studies of literature,this article to a certain extent,make up for the lack of empirical research on the second-hand house price research.Second,the single time-series model can't accurately describe the complex economic system,in this paper,by introducing the TAR threshold auto-regressive model,neural network model,additive AR model,Logistic model such as smooth transition regression model fitting effect comparison,choose a better fitting effect model to forecast,better able to analyze and interpret the second-hand house price index volatility in Tianjin.