Research On The Impact Of RMB Real Exchange Rate On The Trade Between China And ASEAN

Observing the orbit of world economic development,globalization is still the inevitable trend in the development of world economy,if regional cooperation in the free trade area represents the opening of globalization,then 1990 s is the year of the beginning of RMB internationalization.The process of internationalization of RMB began in 1990 s,initially due to the rapid development of border trade led to the "passive" results.In particular,the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008 more fully exposed the limitations of the internationalization of the RMB.July 2009,the domestic five cities officially launched cross-border trade RMB settlement business,which also represents the prelude to the internationalization of RMB officially opened.In recent years,the internationalization of the RMB has also made some significant progress,there is no doubt that the internationalization of the RMB is the trend of the times,but also an inevitable choice for China.The ASEAN region,because of its superior geographical position,and Chinese close economic ties,pragmatic cooperation platform and China-ASEAN Free Trade Area to provide,is the preferred region.Therefore,study how to rely on the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area,continue to promote the internationalization of RMB in the ASEAN economic cooperation,is a very theoretical and practical significance.With the deepening of economic globalization,as the important part of economic globalization,financial globalization,especially the issue of RMB exchange rate and trade issues,has attracted widespread attention in academic circles This paper chooses the hot issues--the change of RMB exchange rate issue in current economic impact on China's foreign trade import and export as a starting point,referring to Literature at home and abroad were studied by qualitative and quantitative analysis,normative and empirical analysis of the combination mode of RMB real effective exchange rate and China ASEAN import and export trade.The six ASEAN countries(Indonesia,Malaysia,Thailand,Singapore,Vietnam and Singapore)the trade volume accounted for more than 80% of the total trade in ASEAN countries,therefore,this paper selects six ASEAN countries as the representative of the research.Firstly,this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of exchange rate change on trade in China.Secondly,through the analysis of the real effective exchange rate of RMB 2005-2015 and the changes of the bilateral exchange rate of the RMB against the six ASEAN countries and the trade status of China ASEAN trade area.Then the trade gravity model is applied to the quantitative analysis of China ASEAN trade,including the establishment of the per capita GDP using the 2005-2015 data,the gravity model of trade distance of basic variables,and on the basis of increased bilateral exchange rate of RMB against the six ASEAN countries weighted this variable,resulting in expansion of trade gravity model.This model is used to evaluate the impact of RMB exchange rate on the import and export trade of ASEAN countries in the context of RMB internationalization Finally,based on the results of the above analysis,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the development of China ASEAN trade from three aspects like exchange rate policy,trade policy and industrial policy.