The Research On Flexible Production Decision Based On MTS/MTO Hybrid Mode Under Multi-variety And Small-batch Occasion

With the development of multi-variety and small-batch mode,the production type of enterprises change from Make to Stock(MTS)or Make to Order(MTO)to MTO/MTS hybrid.Now,the MTO/MTS hybrid mode has been developed in food,electronics,machinery and other industries.This paper is based on the actual production data of AE1.1 group,BC company.The demand forecasts of some products are optimized after analyzing the characteristics and production data.A flexible production decision model with MTO/MTS hybrid mode is constructed based on the forecasting results.The uncertain consumption capacity and profit per unit products are considered in the model.These works can help enterprises adopt reasonable decision of flexible production.Firstly,the researches of multi-variety and small-batch production mode,the researches of automobile parts demand forecasting,and the researches of flexible production planning are reviewed.The valuable methods and their shortages are concluded.Then,the production problems existing in BC company are analyzed.They are large error in demand forecast and low flexibility in production planning.Based on this,the demand forecast methods and flexible production planning model with MTO/MTS hybrid mode under multi-variety and small-batch are proposed.Secondly,the classification of 18 products from AE1.1 group,BC company is done.The products 096,020,011 are selected for demand forecast optimization.The model of GM(1,1)is used to forecast the demand of products 096 and 020.The hybrid model of adaptive dynamic exponential smoothing(ADES)and mobile arithmetic mean(MAM)are used to forecast the demand of product 011.The predicting effects of models are good,and the mean square errors are 3.34%,5.3%,6.9%respectively.Thirdly,the flexible production linear programming with hybrid MTO/MTS under multi-variety and small-batch occasion are proposed.The uncertain consumption capacity per unit production,the profit per unit production and production resource reliability are considered in this model.Then,the uncertain parameters in model are transferred into certain parameters based on uncertain theories.An ant colony algorithm(path selection,pheromone update,path heuristic factor and so on)is designed to solve the mathematic model based on BC company production data.The algorithm' astringency is well,and the satisfactory solution can be calculated quickly.The results show that the flexible production planning can achieve the profit of 731590 yuan.In the planning,supermarket inventory and must accepted orders are produced in all,other orders are produced partly.Compared with initial production planning,the total profit is increased by 17084 yuan,the lifting range is 2.4%.It can get higher income that per unit production capacity.Lastly,the sensitively analysis are done from uncertain production parameters,uncertain demand,and demand forecast reliability aspects.The influence of different factors to production planning are analyzed via total profit that production planning leads.The results can help enterprises make effective product strategies.