| Farmland mortgage loan is an important financing innovation in the field of rural finance in recent years,which aims to partially solve the financing problems of farmers by easing information asymmetry between the lenders and borrowers.However,in this process,farmers have to face the possibility of losing the collateral farmland if he cannot repay the loan,which is the risk of farmland mortgage loan.From the perspective of the risk of farmland mortgage loan,based on the theoretical analysis of the impact of the risk on demands of the farmland mortgage loan,this paper examines the impact of the risk on demand of the farmland mortgage loan using survey data of 910 farmers in Jiangsu Province,and analyzes the effectiveness of the agricultural insurance to compensate the risk in theoretical and empirical.On this basis,to provide operational and targeted policy recommendations for the development of farmland mortgage loan,this paper also calculates the levels of demand for agricultural insurance under different ratio that farmers are willing to participate in farmland mortgage loan.The main contents and conclusions of this paper consist of two sections:The first section:the analysis of the impact of the risk on demands of the farmland mortgage loan.In this part,we introduce the risk of farmland mortgage loan first,including its causes,characteristics and consequences;secondly,we build a theoretical decision model of farmland mortgage loan to analyze the impact of the risk on demands of the farmland mortgage loan;then,we build a binary Logit regression model to analyze the impact of the risk on demands of in the farmland mortgage loan in empirical using survey data of farmers in Jiangsu Province.From the results of the theoretical analysis,according to theoretical decision model,farmers face the probility of losing the collateral farmland if he cannot repay the loan,thereby creating a certain mortgage risk premium,then affecting their demands of the farmland mortgage loan.From the results of the empirical analysis,the binary Logit regression model results show the degree of concurrent business,farmland size and risk preference which reflect the risk of farmland mortgage loan have significant positive impact on demands of the farmland mortgage loan.The risk is an important factor when farmers decide whether to participate in the farmland mortgage loan.The second section:the analysis of the agricultural insurance to compensate the risk of farmland mortgage loan.This section first adds the agricultural insurance to the theoretical decision model of farmland mortgage loan to analyze the effectiveness of the agricultural insurance to compensate the risk in theoretical;and then,we use the t-test and binary Logit regression model to test the effectiveness of the agricultural insurance to compensate the risk in empirical.In addition,we build the Probit regression model to calculate the levels of demand for agricultural insurance under different probability that farmers are willing to participate in farmland mortgage loan.From the results of the theoretical analysis,comparing the theoretical decision model with and without the agricultural insurance,first of all,we find that the introduction of agricultural insurance and improvement of the compensation standard based on the current level of agricultural insurance will increase the expected benefits farmers obtain from farmland mortgage loan,thereby positively affect their demands of farmland mortgage loan..Secondly,the introduction of agricultural insurance will reduce farmers' income volatility to increase their participation in farmland mortgage loan.From the results of the empirical analysis,first of all,the results of t-test show that the introduction of agricultural insurance and improvement of the compensation standard based on the current level of agricultural insurance will increase their demands of farmland mortgage loan significantly.Secondly,the results of binary Logit regression model show that the level of agricultural insurance has a significant positive impact on the demands of farmland mortgage loan,showing that with the increase of the level of agricultural insurance,the farmers' desires to participation in farmland mortgage loan become strong.They test the impact of agricultural insurance on the demands of farmland mortgage loan empirically.According to the estimation result of the Probit regression model,the level of demand for agricultural insurance which median sample farmers are willing to participate in farmland mortgage loan is 950 yuan per mu.The confidence interval under the 95%confidence level is[665,3938]According to the conclusions of this paper,the risk has a significant negative effect on demands of the farmland mortgage loan,and the existing agricultural insurance can increase their participation in this farmland mortgage loan by reducing the risk premium and farmers' income volatility.Furthermore,raising the level of protection on the basis of the existing agricultural insurance can also be effective to increase the proportion of farmers willing to participate in farmland mortgage loan.The agricultural insurance is an effective mean of compensating the risk of farmland mortgage loan.In this regard,to give full play to the role of agricultural insurance compensation for the risk of farmland mortgage loan,thus promoting the healthy development of China's farmland mortgage loan,we should expand the scope and type of agricultural insurance,and increase the level of agricultural insurance. |
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