The Relationship Between China's Telecommunications Development And National Economic Growth:Exogeneity And Cointegration

In the era of information economy, telecommunications has promoted the development of all industries in information diffusion and organizational efficiency, thus promoting economic growth. Meanwhile,the rapid development of information technology is also inseparable from the strong support of the national economy. Therefore, the research on the relationship between the development of telecommunications and the national economic growth has been concerned by many scholars.However, there will also be a variety of problems in the development of telecommunications industry in different economic periods, which to some extent, affecting economic growth. For example,the telecommunications industry lacked the power of improving service efficiency by itself when it was in the natural monopoly status which couldn't meet the needs of national economic development. The unity of government and enterprise management system wasn't conducive to improve telecommunications efficiency and affected the overall economic growth. There were various reforms in the process of telecommunications development, aiming to make telecommunications industry serve the national economic growth better. So what effects do the previous telecommunication reforms on China's telecommunications industry?What's the relationship between national economic growth and the development of the telecommunications? Is there any influence on the study of the relationship between national economic growth and telecommunications development if considered telecommunication reform? It needs to make a quantitative evaluation of four times policy reforms in telecommunications industry, explore the relationship between telecommunications industry and national economy. Also studying the necessity of considering policy reforms when we explore the relationship between telecommunications industry and national economy.The essay selects the data of the total telecommunication service and GDP from 1978 to 2015 for empirical analysis. We use the interference model to evaluate the effect of four times telecommunication reforms and explore the long and short term relationship between two variables by using the test of co-integration and error correction model, discussing the necessity of considering the impact of policy reforms in the process of making test of co-integration.We stripping the effect of four times telecommunication reforms from interference model separately. The result is showed as follows: The introduction of competition and the separation of government and enterprises in 1994-1998 played an active role in telecommunications. In the split reorganization of the three years of the second reform between 1998 and 2001, the telecommunications industry has declined from the previous period, but its positive effects were subsequently revealed. The China Telecom's North-South split on the telecommunications industry has played a negative role in 2002-2004.The market structure of telecommunications became stable after the reform of fourth in 2008, the adaptation period has a negative effect on the telecommunications industry, but the reform dividend gradually released over time. Using the method of ADF to test the two variables unit roots, it is found that original sequence of two variables are second order differential stationary series. The first-order difference variable of the original sequence was tested by E-G two-step method to determine whether there is a co-integration relationship between the two. By comparing of two co-integration model which included policy effect or not, we founded that it is a better model which included policy effect. So we established the error correction model by using the co-integration relation considering the policy influence. The long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation relationship between the two variables are discussed with the model.Through empirical analysis, combined with economic development trends, we make the following recommendations: firstly, attaching importance to and promoting the reform of telecommunications industry in daily operation, thus reducing the risks of reforms. Secondly,increasing the supply side of the telecommunications industry reform,promoting the sharing and building of data information with energy,transportation, education and other industries. Finally, creating the reform process of mixed ownership in telecommunications industry and promoting effective competition in the telecommunications market.