The Interference And Co-integration Relationship Between Economic Growth And Oil Consumption In China

In recent years,with the rapid economic growth in China ,energy consumption,especially the oil consumption and request,was increasing heavily. In this paper the research on the interference between economic growth and oil consumption,oil price in China from several angles was propounded. The impact from oil crisis to different countries was analyzed in cases; qualitative research was done on the actuality and future trend of economy and oil consumption; quantitative analysis was used in the variation of oil consumption in national economic departments; the economic influential factors of the oil consumption was analyzed by using the method of elastic modulus and regression,the factors included economic growth,the expansionary policy of national industry,the structure of energy consumption,the population size and structure change,the developing trend of traffic transport industry,family saloon availability and so on; the future oil consumption was forecasted by using the linear regression and auto-regression models; the economic influential factors of the increasing international oil price recently and its influences on our economy were also expounded. The empirical research on the relationship between economic growth (GDP) and oil consumption in China was done by using the Co-integration test and Granger Causality test. The results indicated that they had the Co-integration relationship and economic growth led to oil consumption in single direction. Therefore,the economic reform and the industry structural readjustment which aimed to raise economic efficiency can increase the utilization efficiency of oil. Also,in order to realize the sustainable development strategy,we should do more work on the oil's substitution. At the end of this paper,the author took the outlook and gave some strategic advices to coordinative development of economy and oil consumption in future.