China's Potential Output Measurement And Economic Growth Trend Analysis

From the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,new government introduced a number of new reform measures,make greater efforts to improve the economic structure,promote economic restructuring,to seek new growth points.In the new historical background and economic environment,China has entered a " China’s New Normal",so people care about these important issues: whether the economic growth in these two or three years is a short-term drop,or a fundamental change,How economic factors changes,what is the economic trends in future.This paper reviews the different factors of economic growth models,the factors of economic growth summarized as capital,human capital,technological progress and institutional.And from the perspective of institutional changes,technology transfer,capital investment,labor input,this paper described the developments in detail of China’s rapid economic growth since 1978.Combined with HP filter and production function method,China’s economic data were estimated since 1978.And the trend of economic growth trends in the next five years is given between 6.40% to 7.04% of the judgments.Finally,the policy recommendations of sustained economic growth is to focus on structural adjustment and reform,encouraging technological innovation,improving capital utilization,improving labor quality.