Short-term Forecast Of China's Potential Economic Growth Rate

China's economy has maintained rapid growth since the reform and opening up,but since 2010,the actual economic growth rate has continued to decline.China's economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a medium-to-high-speed stable development stage.The downward pressure on the economy is increasing,and it is in a historically large In the transition period,how to make the economy grow steadily is particularly important.It is found from the research that compared with the original HP filter,CF filter,and Kalman filter,the boosted HP filter used in the filter decomposition method,the boosted HP filter(HP?BIC)is the closest to the actual economic growth rate and is more accurate;Compared with the filter decomposition method,the measured value is lower than the filter decomposition method,but it is always closer to the actual value,so the production function is more effective.Although the actual growth rate has been lower than the potential growth rate in recent years,the trend gap is Constantly shrinking;from the forecast results,the potential economic growth rate in the next five years will continue to decline,fluctuating between 5.89% and 6.7%,and the economy will continue to decline.Based on the forecast results and combined with the actual situation this year,we propose to focus on proactive fiscal policies in the short term,such as support through government procurement,while supporting loose monetary policy to guide interest rates downward,continue to invest funds,and maintain financial markets.Liquidity;in the medium and long term,it is necessary to continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and switch to a stable monetary policy,but fiscal policy needs to focus on supply-side measures,such as increasing the deficit rate and structural tax cuts.Monetary policy needs to aim for a steady decline in the macro leverage.