| Since 1978,the economy of Zhejiang Province has experienced rapid development for more than 30 years.However,in 2008,the financial crisis in the United States affected the global economy and the economic growth in Zhejiang slowed down,which made the contradiction of the extensive economic growth pattern increasingly prominent.Need to adjust the structure of the input structure to achieve the optimal allocation of resources.This paper analyzes the intrinsic characteristics and growth sources of the potential economic growth rate from the perspective of factor inputs,and establishes an extended Cobb-Douglas production function which includes labor,material capital,human capital,intellectual capital,system and technological progress factors Model,using the 1990-2014 time series data to estimate the input element output elasticity of each structure,so as to get the dynamic characteristics of the factor output elasticity of this period,and calculate the potential economic growth rate of Zhejiang Province in this period Changes.The results show that:firstly,in the structure of labor input,the tertiary industry employment proportion has the greatest positive impact on the elasticity of labor output,while the secondary industry employment proportion has the least positive impact on the elasticity of labor output,but The proportion of tertiary industry's capital investment has the largest positive impact on the elasticity of capital output,while the proportion of the primary industry's capital input to the elasticity of capital output is the same as that of capital's output.And the negative influence of the other three sectors on the output elasticity of knowledge capital is the largest.In the knowledge capital structure,the other sectors have the greatest positive impact on the elasticity of output of intellectual capital,while the other three departments have little difference.Second,from 1990 to 2014,the output elasticity of labor is the highest,with a slight decline,but the elasticity of labor output is less affected by the structural change;the elasticity of material capital output is the lowest,showing a clear upward trend,but the output elasticity of material capital The output elasticity of intellectual capital fluctuates up and down,but the overall performance of the upward trend,showing that the reason may be due to its structural changes affected by the larger.Thirdly,the latent economic growth rate is affected by both the change of factor output and the change of structure and factor output elasticity.The decrease of potential economic growth rate is mainly due to the significant decrease of capital investment efficiency.Growth rate decline,while the knowledge capital structure upgrade to a certain extent,slowing down the potential economic growth rate of decline.In addition,this paper estimates the contribution of factor inputs to the potential economic growth in Zhejiang Province.The results show that:First,the contribution of intellectual capital to the potential economic growth of Zhejiang Province is the largest,reaching 5.91%,which is mainly because the intellectual capital stock has high elasticity and high growth rate;The contribution of capital to the potential economic growth of Zhejiang Province is 3.12%,which is mainly due to the higher growth rate of physical capital stock.The share of institutional change and labor force contributes less to the potential economic growth of Zhejiang Province,Although its elasticity is higher but its growth rate is lower,the range of fluctuation is smaller,which leads to lower contribution to the potential economic growth of Zhejiang Province.Second,the contribution share of intellectual capital is much higher than the contribution of physical capital share growth rate.Finally,this paper puts forward the relevant strategies to promote the rapid,healthy and sustainable development of Zhejiang Province,and put forward the countermeasures from the perspective of the input factors. |
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