Research On Risk Assessment Of Expressway PPP Project

PPP model involving multiple participants making its uncertainty,and the expressway project has the characteristics of large investment,long cycle of construction and operation of expressway,the expressway project adopting PPP model involves a wide range,and the potential risk is more complicated.The expressway PPP project as a quasi-public project is more risky and harder to control than traditional construction projects,and the risk management process is longer.The early stage of the project evaluation of scientific and reasonable risk factors is an important reference for the application of PPP project.This paper based on the nature of the expressway project and the connotation of PPP characteristics to carry out the risk research of expressway PPP project,and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions as the guidance for the risk management of expressway PPP project.Firstly,this paper introduces the definition and classification of PPP model,and combines with China's national conditions to define the PPP model,analysis of the characteristics of expressway project and PPP model,which is integrated with the application from the three aspects of the advantages of PPP mode,good policy support and natural monopoly revenue proves the expressway project adopting PPP model.Secondly,this paper briefly introduces the definition of risk,and analyzes the risk characteristics of PPP project.Using the expert investigation method,the risk identification is divided into six categories,including political risk,financial risk,natural risk,construction risk,operational risk and management risk.Using entropy method based on the preliminary identification of risk factors,the questionnaire has three attributes of risk factors(i.e.,risk probability,risk control and risk loss)contribution into entropy,at a reasonable range of entropy of scientific index screening,to determine the final risk factors and form index system.Then,because of the risk assessment are more qualitative indicators,this paper combines with AHP and entropy method to determine the weights of risk factors.The risk assessment method of multi-level extension evaluation is introduced to evaluate the risk factors of Expressway PPP project from the lower to the upper level convergence analysis.Finally,through empirical analysis,the comprehensive evaluation of the risk level of Shaoguan new expressway project adopting PPP model as a moderate risk,in the evaluation of six types of risk in the risk level of natural risk and construction belongs to a higher level,all the risk index in the law is imperfect,inflation,bad weather,design,cost overruns,and traffic the contract risk index belongs to a higher level.In view of the high level of risk,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions,and gives a reference to the principle of risk sharing,which is a direction of the PPP project risk management.