Research On Risk Allocation In Expressway Project Based On PPP Model

Public-Private Partnership(PPP)has been widely succeed in developed countries such as the United Kingdom,Canada,Australia,France,and Japan.It has eased the contradiction between the shortage supply of infrastructure and the shortage of government funding in the current period.It has also revitalized the social stock funds and effectively used the value of funds.Under the condition of a large number of local government debts,using the PPP model to develop expressway projects has become an important means to ease government financial pressure.However,expressway PPP projects have many characteristics such as large number of stakeholders,long construction and operation cycles,and incomplete contracts.Compared with traditional engineering projects,expressway PPP projects have more complex and diverse risk factors.Unreasonable risk allocation is an important factor leading to project failure.Therefore,exploring fair and reasonable risk allocation mechanisms and strengthening the quantitative analysis of shared risks has become an important part of risk allocation research.In the above backgrounds,the thesis carried out the following research:Firstly,the thesis summarized the current status of research on risk identification and risk allocation at home and abroad through literature analysis.Starting from the concept and features of the PPP model,the thesis reviews the advantages and disadvantages of the PPP model.Combining with project financing theory and public product theory,the feasibility of applying PPP to expressway project was analyzed,which laid a foundation for analyzing the risk allocation of expressway PPP project.Secondly,the thesis identified 45 risks of expressway PPP projects in China by using the literature review method,case analysis method and Delphi method.Risk classification method was used to classify risk factors into three categories: macro-level risk,meso-level risk and micro-level risk.Delphi method was used to investigate the probability of risk occurrence and damage degree of expressway PPP project.The occurrence probability and damage degree of each risk were ranked,and the degree of risk impact was calculated.35 key risk factors was identified using ABC classification methodthirdly,the thesis builds a four-stage risk allocation framework based on the objectives and principles of risk allocation.In the stage of risk allocation consultation and negotiation,it is considered that the negotiations between the public and private sectors on the proportion of risk allocation is a bargaining process,pointing out that public sector occupies the status and information advantages in the expressway PPP project.A bargaining game for risk allocation under incomplete information was modeled,and a refined Bayesian Nash equilibrium for the bargaining game model was solved using the inverse induction method.Finally,the thesis takes the Beijing Xingyan Expressway PPP project as an example and use the bargaining game model to solve the proportion of risk allocation.The results show that the bargaining game model can better calculate the proportion of risk between the public and private sectors.