| Sudan is an underdeveloped agricultural economic country,which is mainly lacking of foreign exchange reserves;the exports of agricultural products are the major foreign exchange sources besides oil exports,accounting for 90% of the total foreign exchange as non-petroleum exports.Sesame is one of the most important traditional crops in Sudan.It has been exported all over the world for a long time.The purpose of this study is to analyze the influencing factors of sesame export.In order to study the impact of the factors on Sesame exports,the data in this study is used from FAO official database,including the trading quantity and value of sesame imported from Sudan by partner countries over the years(during 1997 – 2009).The partners are divided into 3 groups: Europe& America,Asia and the Middle East;the first group covers European and American countries,including Aruba,Belgium,Bulgaria,Cyprus,France,Canada,Germany,Greece,Italy,Holland,Poland,Russia,Spain,Switzerland and the United Kingdom;the second groups,Asian countries,such as Chinese,India,Japan,Republic of Korea,Oman,Turkey;third group,Middle Eastern countries,such as Algeria,Egypt,Iran,Jordan,Lebanon,Libya,Saudi Arabia,Syria,Tunisia,Yemen,etc..In this study,the gravity model is used as a quantitative tool to analyze the factors that affect the sesame export of Sudan.They are analyzed for all partners,3 groups and 14 partner countries whose sesame trade is relatively continuous and stable.In the analysis of all partners,the variables of trade price,GDP,consumption,and even Sudan sesame production are not significant,but the partners’ population and Sudan sesame production have significant influence on sesame import of partner countries,the common border and common language have positive impact on sesame trade.The results in group analysis show: in the first group,the variables of population,Sudan sesame production,GDP,trade price are not significant;variables of sesame production in partner country,consumption,and time trend will significantly lead to more import of Sudan sesame;in the second group,all the variables are not significant;in the third group,the population and consumption of sesame have a positive,significant impact on sesame import from Sudan.The results of the study were good for 14 partner countries.For example,the analysis results of China show: Chinese increases population by 1%,sesame import will increase to 23.4%,the effect is very obvious;when China sesame production increases by 1%,the import of sesame declines by 25.2%;when Sudan production of Sesame increases by 1%,exports to China will increase by 5.8%;when the sesame trade price increases by 1%,the exports of sesame declines by 7.3%;from the time series,China has the tendency to increase import of Sudan sesame.The results of the analysis can clearly show the key factors that determine China importing sesame from Sudan.There are many factors to be considered in the export of sesame,the government of Sudan should pay more attention to the trade policy. |
