An Empirical Research Based On Trade Gravity Model

With the improvement of overall national strength,China has become the second largest economy in the world.The gap between China and the United States is shrinking each year on the total economy.This situation has aroused great attention of the US government,in order to avoid increasing the deficit,the United States continued to raise tariffs on China,made of high-tech export bans and anti-dumping measures such notice.Since Trump ruling,trade friction between China and the United States intensified,Trump government in March 9,2018 announced on Chinese imports of steel products imposed a 25% tariff,aluminum products imposed a 10% tariff,Sino-US trade frictions in a sustained manner.In January 2020,just after the Sino-US trade war for a period of 22 months,we signed a settlement agreement the first phase of this agreement on behalf of the Sino-US trade war lull,easing the pressure on the Chinese government and enterprises to some extent.In May 2020,the United States rekindled the flames of war,sanctions Huawei has taken to restrict Chinese companies listed in the US,will be included 33 Chinese companies and organizations "Entity List" and other measures.The United States launched a trade war original intention was to reduce the trade deficit,to suppress China's economy and science and technology,while maintaining Trump's own political interests,the United States while increasing Chinese import tariffs to lower domestic rates.There is no doubt that the trade war after the United States did not achieve its goals.Then the impact of the trade friction,how will China export it?Based on previous studies,based on the background of the Sino-US trade war,through qualitative and quantitative analysis of the impact of Sino-US trade friction caused by exports to China.Qualitative analysis in part,from the SinoUS trade friction Historical Review,cause analysis and impact analysis of three major analysis of the impact of Sino-US trade friction to Chinese exports;in empirical analysis,regression analysis made by stata time series,introduced to the United States China imposed tariffs,technical barriers to trade the United States to China,"337" number on file as trade and other trade friction variable as variable friction,gravity model of trade after the use of quantitative analysis of the impact of improved Sino-US trade friction to Chinese exports.In the trade gravity model,the definition is not limited to Chinese exports on total exports to China,but also in different product categories,the empirical study for a shorter processing cycle products,low value-added processed products and for light differences in the correlation of exports of some of the processing cycle is longer,more complex technical process of re-processed products,obtained for different categories of products subject to the impact of trade friction is different,and re-export trade friction processed products the amount of correlation is more significant.This study contributes to my country's relevant enterprises and government departments at all levels to more effectively respond to future events trade dispute.