The Impact Of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area On Economic Growth In The ASEAN Countries

In the context of globalization,the development of China as a superpower,ASEAN's most influential regional economic organizations as the Asian region,both sides have the will to build a free trade area,and gradually implemented.2002"China-ASEAN Free Trade Framework Agreement" is the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area beginning,whereby the rapid development of bilateral economic and trade relations.From 1990 to 2014,China and ASEAN countries have 50 times more than the growth of bilateral trade volume.In addition,ASEAN countries,China is an important country of origin of foreign capital,but also the fastest-growing Chinese outbound investment.Specifically,the end of2002,the cumulative two-way investment between China and asean countries is $30.1 billion.And by the end of 2014,the cumulative two-way investment between China and asean countries has amounted to 130 billion yuan,among them,the association of south-east Asian nations(asean)accounted for 69%,31%in China.In the case of bilateral trade and investment have significant growth,China,ASEAN Free Trade Area actually have any effect on the economic growth of the ASEAN countries,we need a more intuitive data.Through the analysis of real data,we found that some ASEAN countries,China-ASEAN Free Trade Area established around twelve years compared to the occurrence of slowing economic growth,thus the issues raised herein.In order to study China-ASEAN countries on the economic growth of the ASEAN Free Trade Area,this paper constructs a "counteriactual" analysis model.The traditional econometric models easy to miss the presence of the relevant important argument to establish an accurate theoretical model comparison difficult issues.The "counterfactual"estimation method we can solve these problems,on the other hand,think that this method will be different individuals on the same cross-section by a common factor(capital,technology,population,etc.)influence,despite the differences in the extent of its impact,will lead to the existence of a correlation between the cross-sectional data,the correlation between the experimental group and then by policy or before the event to be derived from the study and control groups after the relevant events in the experimental group policies or"counterfactual" predict and estimate the situation,and then relax the assumption of randomness associated econometric model required.Through a series of steps"eounterfactual" analysis,the results found that,if China-ASEAN Free Trade Area is not established,the ASEAN country's economic growth rate will be lower.The results of the model to verify the role in promoting free trade area Member States economic growth.Well,since the FTA member countries to promote economic growth,why would the result of the economic slowdown?To solve this problem,but also by a series of factors of economic growth analysis,empirical models,find the appropriate reason.The results showed that China?ASEAN Free Trade Area is still significant for ASEAN countries to promote economic growth and at the same time,the most important way is by increasing FDI and thus affect economic growth.Meanwhile,the results may cause the ASEAN countries economic slowdown for two reasons,one is ASEAN's own reason,that the government burden and serious inflation,on the other hand reasons from commodity price fluctuations on international exogenous shock.