Research Of Technological Paradigm Transformation Foresight On The Perspective Of Evolutionary Economics

A series of technological paradigm transformation phenomenon occurs frequently,such as the leader of film industry,Kodak's bankruptcy with the appearance of digital imaging technology;The leader of functional mobile phone,Nokia's failure with the popularization of smart phones;The leader of China's plasma TV industry,Changhong's decline with the rapid development of LCD TV.It shows that the phenomenon of "ant toppled elephant" is becoming increasingly common.In this context,firms that can foresee and effectively response technological paradigm transformation will become the leader of the industry.Meanwhile,firms that react slowly will be eliminated by the market.The foresight of technological paradigm transformation should be established in mastering the essence of new technologies producing and the mechanism of technological paradigm transformation.However,the present research focused on the coping strategy for technological paradigm transformation and the methods to forecast technological paradigm transformation through patent Literature and expert opinion.Besides,the most of the present research are based on linear thinking,therefore it's still difficult for them to effectively solve the problem of technological paradigm transformation with high complexity.Few researches developed technological paradigm transformation forewarning theory and methods based on the in-depth analysis of inherent mechanism of technology paradigm transformation from the perspective of complex system.Aimed at the existing research gaps,after comprehensive analysis of the relevant theory about evolutionary economics and technical paradigm transformation,this paper defined the research content of analyzing and forewarning the technological paradigm transformation from the perspective of evolutionary economics.Firstly,this paper analyzed the internal relationship between evolutionary economics and technological paradigm transformation.Afterwards,this paper described the characteristics of technological paradigm transformation,including the analysis of the composition of the technical paradigm and the technical paradigm system,the dynamic mechanism and the process characteristics of the technological paradigm transformation.Based on the characteristics description and combined with supportive theory tools,this paper analyzed interaction forces and inherent mechanism in technology paradigm transformation,and then built the theoretical forewarning model and dissipative structure forewarning model of the technological paradigm transformation.Based on the research conclusion,this paper put forward the inspiration and suggestion for enterprises to carry out technological innovation activities,which highlighted the practical value of this article.A brief summary and the prospects for future research are given at last.This study not only enriched the technological paradigm and evolutionary economics theory,but also provided some valuable reference for the enterprises to carry out technological innovation activities.