The Research On The Risk Assessment Of Metro PPP Project Based On The CIM-AHP

Scale expansion of urbanization leads to traffic congestion,poor travel efficiency and other issues.Metro as the main urban transport is the effective way to solve the problem of urban congestion in China.However,Metro project construction of our country is faced with financing difficulties.The PPP mode can not only solve the problem of Metro project financing effectively,but also provide an opportunity for social capital to participate in the Metro project infrastructure.At present,the private capital of the Metro project exists many problems in risk management and lacks the knowledge of the types and importance of the risk factors.It still lack a complete theoretical basis and risk evaluation system.Therefore,it is necessary to study the risk assessment of the PPP project investors.Based on the relevant theoretical research of the Metro PPP project in domestic and oversea,this article analyzes the definition,connotation and the participation of the Metro PPP project and thorough studies of private capital risk,risk formation mechanism and characteristics combined with the modern risk management theory.According to the obvious stage characteristics of the Metro project for private capital,the project is divided into six stages,identification and preparation stage,bidding stage,financing stage,construction stage,operation stage.The risk factor of private capital at various stages is identified by using literature analysis and expert investigation method and the initial risk list is established.The initial risk list of basic data is obtained by designing the questionnaire,then the further risk is identified by using fuzzy clustering analysis method and the final risk list is established in the end..On the basis of deep analysis of the existing risk assessment methods,the comprehensive evaluation method of CIM-AHP is proposed and the motivation and effectiveness of the method are analyzed.Furthermore,the Metro PPP project investment risk evaluation index system and comprehensive evaluation model is established.Finally,through the empirical analysis of the case,the risk assessment results are consistent with the actual situation of the case that demonstrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the method.The research contributes to understand and control the risk of Metro PPP project risk well for the private capital.It has practical significance for reducing risk and ensure theproject smooth implementation.At the same time,it can provide reference for the research of the private capital's risk allocation mechanism about Metro PPP project.