The Region Innovation Efficiency Evaluation Considering Output Time-lag Effects Of Intermediate Variable

Nowadays,with the globalization of economy,the competition is more and more fierce among countries.Under the circumstance of high competitive pressure,the ability of innovation is regarded as an important way to increase the economy of country,and the key to gain competitive edge for country.At the same time,as an important part of the national economy,regional economy acts an important role.The regional economy is concerning with high level of regional innovation ability.Therefore,it is the key to gain high level regional innovation ability for improving the national innovation ability.Therefore,we analyze its structure of regional innovation system and evaluate the performance to provide corresponding policy for increasing the ability of regional innovation.It is benefit to institute high level of innovation ability for province,and to improve the efficiency of regional innovation.On the other side,it is helpful to promote the development of regional economy,and to enhance national competitive advantage.It is favorable to evaluation the innovation performance for data envelopment analysis(DEA).However,conventional DEA models assume that the inputs of a specific period are consumed to produce the outputs of the same period.This underlying assumption may not be valid in some performance evaluation,that outputs of a specific period can be thought to be produced by consumption of not only inputs in the same period but also the inputs in multiple previous periods.The process of innovation has this problem: the first stage is the R&D process,and the intermediate output of this stage is patent or thesis.The intermediate variable has time-lag effect.However,there is no time-lag effect for economic transformation process of second stage.Therefore,in order to evaluate the efficiency of two-stage processes more objective,we proposed a two-stage DEA model which considered the output time-lag effects of intermediate variable.And we applied the Malmquist productivity index to know the dynamic changes of time series finally,so as to find out the causes of efficiency change.The proposed method was applied to evaluate the innovation efficiency of 30 provinces of China under the meta-frontier theory.We divide the index into index of change of technical efficiency,index of change of technological and index of change of technological gap.In addition,in order to analyze the regional innovation efficiency of each province of China whether will gradually narrow the gap with the change of time or not,and finally reach a relatively stable state.This paper constructs a non-parametric method of convergence analysis to test the convergence of innovation.The results show that:(1)The rank of considering the output time-lag effects of intermediate variable model are more objective by calculating the efficiency value of each province;(2)The eastern's technical level is higher than central and western's through the efficiency analysis of meta-frontier and group frontier.The technical level of central region is reducing gap with the optimal technical level at a slow rate;(3)Innovation performance is not only closely related to the efficiency of R&D stage and economic transformation stage,but also with the management level and technical level through the Malmquist productivity index analysis.On the other side,innovation is also affected by external factors,such as the financial crisis.(4)Most of the regions are moving to the optimal frontier,and show the (?) convergence state with the change of time through the convergence analysis.Most of the regions don't show a trend of decreasing gap obviously between the optimal frontier and the worst frontier.