The Mechanism And Empirical Study On The Vulnerability Of Real Estate Industry Based On Financial Accelerator

Since 2003,the real estate industry has been regarded as a pillar industry of our national economy,the influence of it becoming more and more visible.Rethinking the global crisis which resulted from the 2007's credit crisis,the instability of the estate industry easily leads to the instability of the whole financial industry,and further give rise to the safety of the global economy.Frequent financial crisis reminds us that we must clearly know the importance of real estate and finance in our national economy.And it also verifies the weakness of the industries,especially the instability of those industries that the finance depends on and the financial accelerator due to the characteristic that little impact would give rise to big impact.Therefore,this paper do the research on the financial accelerator effect of the real estate,mainly analyzing how the finance affect the real estate's investment and accelerating the weakness of the real estate and the fluctuation of the economy.This paper firstly researches the weakness of our country's real estate through factor analysis by calculating the weakness index of our country's real estate from 2005 to 2015 and analyzes the reasons for the fluctuation of the real estate's weakness index.And then by setting BGG mode l to analyze the financial accelerator effect of the real estate and at the base of analyzing the best choice of the bank and the real estate,the paper discusses the essence of financial accelerator effect on the real estate: the existence of net asset effect and financing leverage.Finally,combining the relating data of C hinese 91 public enterprises from 2005 to 2015 and setting time and individual fixed effects model,the paper verifies the existence of financial accelerator effect in Chinese real estate.The research results show that our country's real estate weakness index had the rising tendency,but it finally stabilized.The fluctuation of the investment scale is bigger than the fluctuation of the real estate's return on equity.Despite of controlling the ratio between the current liability and net cash from operating activities,the short debt and the total debt,the short debt and current debt,the financial accelerator effect still exists in the real estate filed.Return on equity and the ratio o f asset-liability have the positive correlation.Finally,at the basis of analyzing the weakness of real estate,this paper gives relating government suggestions on reducing the real estate's weakness and helping the real estate develop healthily.