Empirical Research Of The Effect Of Money Supply On Commodity House Price

The real estate industry is becoming an important part of China's national economy.It has a strong correlation and traction in the development of the upstream and downstream industries,and it is recognized as one of the pillars of pulling economic growth.But house price rise too fast may lead to bubbles,imbalance of aggregate demand structural,inflation and economic overheating,and the price burst will lead to financial crisis and social unrest.As the real estate has a very important role in the entire national economy,social and life,so the government often use a variety of policy tools for macro-control.Due to the real estate is a capital-intensive industries,so in recent years,the government used to apply economic policy tools to control the unreasonable rise in house price.As an important intermediary indicators when the central bank enforce policy control,the money supply closely related to the rising and volatility of house price.The study of explore channels and relationships of money supply on commodity house price in different regions and figure out the increase of money supply is more of enhance the basic value through the capitalization or other reasons rather than the accumulation of speculative bubble has very important theoretical and practical significance.Based on the above research purpose,firstly,this paper analyzes the main mechanism of money supply to house price based on the theory of western monetary policy transmission mechanism,and elaborates the mechanism in theory from the perspective of supply,rigid demand and speculative demand.Secondly,through the compilation of the relevant literatures on the study of house price composition,the suitable method of calculation for this paper is sorted out and according to the results of literature and theoretical research,using 2005 to 2016 quarterly data of income change rate,interest change rate,population change rate,real estate development investment change rate and house price change rate of Beijing,Guangzhou,Shanghai and Chengdu to establish the residential basic value assessment model,by using the iterative regression method to find out the house price composition of the basic value and the bubble price and the degree of bubble of four cities,then the VAR(vector autoregressive)model was established by using calculated results and the main mediator variables of the mechanism,such as money supply,market interest rate,deposit reserve ratio and bank credit.Through impulse response,exploring the channels and relationships of money supply impact to housing prices,the basis values and bubble prices.On the in-depth analysis of the results of the two-part empirical studies,this paper draws the following conclusions:?The increase of money supply is more of enhance the basic value through the capitalization or other reasons rather than the accumulation of speculative bubble.? There are significant regional differences in the impact of the mediator variables of the influence of money supply on housing prices,basic values and bubble prices.? The mediator variables of the influence of money supply have different degrees of impact on different prices.?The change of foam degree is related to the change of M2 growth rate,but the correlation between different cities is different.?The foam degree is greatly influenced by policy,and the sensitivity of different cities is different.?The bubble degree is relative with the housing price level but more relevant with the housing market price fluctuations.Finally,based on the main conclusions,this paper puts forward the real estate macro-control policies and the related planning system from the demand and supply to control the price in the reasonable range,and reduce the speculation of the price.