Comprehensive Assessment And Forecasting Research On Urbanization In Xinjiang Province

Urbanization is the outward manifestation of regional social and economic development,is an indispensable prerequisite for regions to move towards the paths of modernization.With the course of urbanization advancing,the connotation of urbanization is being increasingly enriched.Take every subject perspective into consideration,urbanization development is a complex dynamic system including population,economy,society,eco-environment,infrastructure and some other aspects.At present,Xinjiang lags behind the national average both in the level and the rate of urbanization development.To accelerate the course of urbanization in Xinjiang is undoubtedly the vital aspect in boosting social and economic development,as a consequence,constructing a more practical urbanization development assessment index system to have a better understanding of its state of development is extremely necessary from the perspective of time and space.This paper,basing its target on Xinjiang with the perspective of comprehensive development of urbanization,firstly,introduces the status quo of the research on urbanization at home and abroad and the aim and meaning of the selected topic in this paper.Secondly,it makes historical retrospects and analyses of the present situation of urbanization development in Xinjiang.Thirdly,it conducts some profound analyses on the connotation of urbanization based on a comprehensive perspective,based on which the assessment index system is thus constructed.This paper constructs different index systems from aspects of population,economy,space,society,eco-environment,labor employment,infrastructure,makes comprehensive assessment on the urbanization level in Xinjiang province and other 14 prefectures by means of entropy approach,weighted sum method,coupling harmonious degree model,GM prediction model,and so on,and makes temporal-spatial analyses on its evolutionary characters.At last,in terms of the existing problems and demerits in the urbanization process in Xinjiang province,the paper comes up with some corresponding proposals and countermeasures.The main conclusions in this paper are as follows:1.Through the theory of urbanization,historical retrospect,status analysis of the urbanization development in Xinjiang,it is found that urbanization in Xinjiang can be divided into 6 phases influenced by international environment and national policies.From the current situation,consisting of one big city,25 small cities and 1046 villages and towns,the ratio of urban grade scale in Xinjiang is imbalanced.In space,it presents the distribution pattern of one circle and three zones.The distance between cities is relatively far,the space radiating and exemplary role declines,and the scale benefit of towns is relatively low.Regionally,there exists some great differences in every aspect whether between or in different regions.2.In the assessment of urbanization in Xinjiang,weighted sum method is used to calculate the general scores of urbanization and its subsystems in Xinjiang,it is found that the comprehensive urbanization development characters in Xinjiang can be divided into two phases: undulate development phase and rapid development phase.In addition,the paper analyzes the coupling coordination relations between urbanization level and subsystems and within the subsystems,finding out there exists some differences between different time points.3.In the assessment of urbanization in every prefecture,the paper makes spatial analyses on the stratum feature of urbanization development of prefectures in Xinjiang by applying the approach of ArcGIS Nature Breaks,which analyzes its temporal-spatial evolution features from different time points.The general evolution process is a continuously decreasing evolution tendency from central high places in Urumqi and Karamay outward to surrounding prefectures.Bazhou is the highest in the southern five administrative districts of Xinjiang,with moving southwestward,it becomes lower.The evolution in the eastern Xinjiang is not apparent.In general,it expresses the descended evolution tendency from the center to the periphery.In addition,there also exist relatively great differences between the subsystems like economy,society,population,and environment in every prefecture.4.The urbanization level in Xinjiang is predicted to present an increasing trend by the usage of GM(1,1)pattern.The urbanization rate is increased to 52.8% from 48.61% in 2016.However,with the urbanization level in Xinjiang improving,the increase of population proposes high requirements for medical health,infrastructure,living environment,education and so on,which calls for the attention of relevant departments,requires to solve various issues resulted from the process of urbanization,and boost the social stability and economic sustainable development in Xinjiang province.