Research On Price Fluctuations Of Chinese Soybean Meal Driven By International Factors

With the development of economy,the dependence of soybean meal on foreign factors is higher and higher.The volatility of the domestic soybean meal price is increasingly influenced by international market factors.The causes and characteristics of the price are also becoming more complicated.However,the current study on the volatility of soybean meal price under the influence of international factors is not comprehensive and thorough.So this paper attempts to study and analyze the price volatility driven by the international factors on the basis of the previous studies.In theory,based on the theory of volatility,combined with the status of supply and demand,this paper studies the impact mechanism and international factors that impact the domestic soybean meal price volatility.In the empirical analysis,according to the availability of the data,this paper collects the data of past 10 years and uses the vector error correction model of the Markov area system transfer.Based on the observed asymmetry of price volatility and the characteristics of the situation,this paper analyzes the influence of various international factors on the price volatility of soybean meal in China.The results show that the price has been fluctuating in decreasing,rising and being stable,there is a significant phenomenon of regional transfer.At the same time,the volatility of price shows the asymmetry in the distribution length and switching of regimes.Based on the above analysis,this paper put forward some policy suggestions in order to achieve the goal of stabilizing soybean meal price and safeguarding the soybean meal agriculture,such as preventing the imported inflation risk and adjusting the power structure of import and export of soybean.