| Water conservancy is the lifeblood of agriculture, the size of the investment in water conservancy projects, water conservancy project management and scientific use, can play a greater role in the actual effectiveness of existing water resources. The construction and management of water conservancy project is an important material condition to ensure the safety of agricultural production and accelerate the development of agricultural modernization.Especially in the lack of water resources, water conservancy projects to meet the needs of agricultural development and other issues will directly affect the ability to resist natural disasters and agricultural productivity and production efficiency. At present, in the country to accelerate the development of urbanization under the background of the emergence of a new problem is the reduction of arable land, cultivated land quality variation, which has been a serious threat to agricultural production safety, food in China therefore, in the country to vigorously develop water conservancy project under the background of agricultural engineering of water conservancy project investment benefit production conditions is very urgent and necessary.It belongs to the semi humid and semi-arid area, water resources shortage.The investment construction of water conservancy projects affects the agricultural production of the region to a great extent.Therefore, this paper selects the relevant data of agricultural production and water conservancy projects in Guanzhong area from 1978 to 2013 to carry out the following research:first, analyzing the basic conditions of agricultural production, water conservancy and other agricultural investment situation, the fluctuation of grain yield;second, in order to get the main factor of agricultural production,we use principal component analysis to analyze the influence factors including effective irrigation area and flood area of investment and construction of water conservancy project ,farmland,fertilizer, pesticide, manpower and other inputs for agricultural production, the principal component factors of agricultural production;third, establishing a principal component regression model analysis of water conservancy investment and other investment in agricultural production project investment benefit and effect mechanism;last, the construction of the food security situation analysis area under the conditions in water conservancy engineering.The basic conclusions show as follows:(1) According to the basic conditions,water resources are scarce in Guanzhong area, but the terrain is flat, which is more suitable for grain production.From the view of investment in agriculture, water conservancy investment has been in a growth trend, the effective irrigation rate reached 43.46%, the cultivated land area has been reduced, agricultural machinery,electricity, chemical fertilizer, pesticide, agricultural film and other agricultural inputs has been increased.From the disaster situation, the affected area of the Guanzhong area has been in a state of shock,and the average disaster rate of grain is over 50% of the sown area,hazard rate so is.In view of the fluctuation of grain, the grain production has been in a state of fluctuation, the fluctuation range is large and the fluctuation frequency is high.(2) The principal component analysis showed that there were four main components affecting grain yield in Guanzhong area, and the cumulative variance was about 91.849%.The first principal component is mainly composed of the affected area, the main crop sown area, the disaster area, the effective irrigation area and the cultivated area, and the variance contribution rate is 55.351%.The second principal component mainly by agricultural employment,Hanlaobaoshou area, agricultural fertilizer fertilizers, agricultural machinery power, rural electricity consumption, the contribution rate was 25.033%.The third main component is mainly composed of pesticide use, the contribution rate is 6.745%.Fourth the main component is mainly composed of agricultural plastic film, the contribution rate is 4.720%. It can be seen that water conservancy investment plays an important role in agricultural production.(3) According to the results of principal component regression, the agricultural investment,such as water conservancy project, farmland and so on, has different effects on the agricultural production efficiency.Elastic coefficient of effective irrigation area and Hanlaobaoshi area showed a alternate phenomenon, the elastic coefficientthe of effective irrigation area is negative in 1980?1984 (-0.24) and 1995?1999 (-0.63), which is a more obvious obstacle to improve the efficiency of agricultural production, and in 1985?1989 (0.15), 1990?1994 (0.20), 2005?2009(0.56) and 2009?2013 (0.23) the elastic coefficientthe of effective irrigation area is positive,improving the efficiency of agricultural production.The elastic coefficient of Hanlaobaoshi area is only negative in 2000?2004 (-0.34) years, and the other stages are positive.Other agricultural inputs in Guanzhong area average elastic coefficients of cultivated land (-0.8365) and labor input (-0.1407) is negative, agricultural fertilizer (0.8342), agricultural machinery (0.1006) and agricultural plastic film (0.0016) is positive, the early use of electricity in rural areas (-17.2787)the average elastic coefficient is negative, then positive (1.4313 1.0308, 0.5814, 0.1727, 0.1910,1.0381).Before 2009, the input of pesticide on agricultural production is very large, and it has a serious impediment to agricultural production in 2009.(4)The grain production in most years in Guanzhong area is in the safety level, the grain production in some years is in the basic safety level, and the grain production in the individual years is in the critical safety level. The result shows that the grain production in Guanzhong area is generally safe in the condition of water conservancy project construction, and the agricultural production investment of water conservancy, farmland, fertilizer and so on in Guanzhong area has great effect on grain production. |
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