Research On The Impact Of China's Real Estate By Macro Control Policies On Housing Market Under The Perspective Of Expectation

Since the housing market in 1998,the real estate market has gradually developed into an important pillar industry of the national economy.With the rapid development of real estate industry,the housing price is also rising.Therefore,the government has issued a variety of real estate control policies,in order to guide the healthy development of the housing market.However,most of real estate control policies to make housing prices or housing prices rose were temporarily suppressed,did not fundamentally solve the problem of housing prices rose too fast.At the same time,the market participants will make behavior decision based on their own future market trends in the estimation and judgments,and these behavior decisions determine the housing market supply and demand structure,exacerbated the volatility of housing prices,thereby affecting the effect of real estate control policy.Based on the above background,this paper explores the mechanism between the macro control policies of real estate and the housing market under the perspective of expectation.This article selects the relevant data of 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government),except Tibet from 2000 to2015,and analyzes the impact of the government 's real estate macro control policies on housing supply,housing demand and housing prices.The research ideas and main conclusions of this paper are as follows:1.Based on the stock-flow model,the expectation(developers and consumers)and real estate control policies are incorporated into the housing market regulation model,from housing supply,housing demand and housing price.Quantitative researchand comparative analysis of the implementation of real estate macro control policies in China's relevant areas,to identify effective policies for housing supply and housing demand,which provide a strong basis for the government to make more accurate and more targeted control policies.2.With the national housing climate index and consumer expectations index on behalf of developer expectations and consumer expectations,the results show that market participant expectations have an important impact on housing supply,housing demand and housing prices.And comparative analysis shows that both the developer expectations or consumer expectations have weakened the effect of the real estate macro control policies.3.For housing supply,the impact of credit policy is higher than land policy and interest rate policy,and the influence of land policy is higher than interest rate policy.For housing demand,the influence of interest rate policy is higher than land policy,without considering the impact of credit policy.4.Under the expectation effect,when the government tighten the supply of land,due to the increasing development costs,real estate companies will reduce market supply,consumers will increase the purchase under the expectation of supply reduction and house price rising,and ultimately lead to rising housing prices.When the government raise lending rates,real estate companies can shift the development costs of policies to consumers,which will not affect the supply of housing,the reduction in housing demand will eventually lead to a decline in housing prices.When the government introduced preferential credit policy,the housing supply of real estate enterprises will increase,in the case of rising house prices,it can be speculated that housing demand is in a growing trend,which consistent with the irrational demand situation of China's housing market.