The Research About The Import And Export Trend Prediction And The International Competitiveness Of Chinese Pesticide Industry

The essence of pesticide is the chemicals which prevent diseases and pests in agriculture,forestry and other industries as well as regulate the growth of plants,including the additives changing the active ingredients of pharmaceuticals.Pesticide has a close relationship with agriculture and forestry and is the supporting industry of agriculture and forestry and other industries.Pesticide plays an important role in safeguarding the quality of agricultural products and preventing the disaster of forest products.With the rapid development of global economy,the public have higher and higher requirement for the product quality of agriculture,forestry and other industries,what's more,the demand is increasing with the growth of global population.However,the area of effective cultivation of agriculture,forestry and other industries is on the decrease on a global scale yearly.Thus,through the use of pesticides to protect and improve the unit area of agriculture,forestry and other industries is one of the necessary and effective means.Since the accession to the WTO in 2000,China's foreign trade in the agriculture industry enhance gradually.The impact of the pesticide industry on China's agricultural production and even the entire economic system is extraordinary.As we all know,China is not only a large country of pesticide production,but also a large country of pesticide export.With the constant adjustment of China's foreign trade policy of pesticides as well as the constant optimization of the structure of the import and export products,China's pesticide industry has developed greatly,but still fail to achieve the level of pesticide power.Nowadays,China's pesticide industry still has many problems,including malicious competition,less independent intellectual property products and other issues.Therefore,recognizing the development trend of China's pesticide industry and influencing factors under the new situation are of great significance to the improvement of the international competitiveness of China's agriculture industry.This paper first introduces the current situation of pesticide trade and industrial competitiveness at home and abroad.And then analyze the production and trade status of pesticides in China based on descriptive statistical analysis.The results show that China's pesticide production has grown rapidly and become the world's largest pesticide producer.The pesticide production enterprises are mainly in the east.What's more,the import and export volume of pesticide increase at the same time.Pesticide exports account for half of the pesticide production,besides,export varieties tend to be herbicides,pesticides and fungicides.Then,using ARIMA model to predict the trend of import and export of China's pesticide,which shows a good picture of import and export of China's pesticide.Finally,this paper quantitatively analyzes the influencing factors of the international competitiveness of China's pesticide industry based on the qualitative analysis of Porter's masonry theory and combined with multivariate linear regression method as well as investigates the characteristics and existing problems of pesticide industry development in China and puts forward corresponding policies and recommendations.