| The lands that farmers contract for operation are currently disperse and fragmentary in our country.The small scale and decentralized mode is the mainstream in agricultural production and management.Along with the rapid progress of industrialization and urbanization,other reasons such as the reform of household registration system,these influences are responsible for the transfer of most rural labor force from lands to the second and third industry in the city.Labor force for agricultural production is in short supply,therefore lands go to waste.In order to ensure food security,the government has issued a series of policies.The orderly transfer of management rights for rural lands is encouraged.At the same time,the replacement of the small scale and decentralized mode by mechanized scale management is promoted actively.Based on the theories,such as scale economy of land and system theory,the thesis adopts the methods of research such as document research,system dynamics and applies them to the study of interactive development between socialized agro-mechanization service and the scale of land operation in main grain-producing areas(Zhoukou and Shangqiu)of Henan Province.According to the result of on-the-spot investigation of farmers' management scale and the present situation of agro-mechanization service in study area,the thesis puts forward a coupling development hypothesis which is about socialized agro-mechanization service and the scale of land operation in main grain-producing area and arrives at an empirical conclusion by building up and imitating emulationally a system dynamics model.First of all,the thesis sorts through documents and theories which are related to the population transfer,the alteration of land management scale and the development of socialized agro-mechanization service.Furthermore,the questionaire about the needs and supplies of agro-mechanization service is designed according to the objective and content of this thesis.By means of random sampling survey,field visits are made for research about farmers and individual owners of agricultural machine in main grain-producing(wheat)areas of Henan province and the acquired survey data are processed to make a descriptive statistics analysis.Secondly,on the basis of documents,theories and survey data,the thesis analyzes the coupling development mechanism between socialized agro-mechanization service and the scale of land operation.Finally,the SD model of the coupling development between socialized agro-mechanization service and the scale of land operation is constructed by employing the method of system dynamics.The conclusions and suggestions are yielded after operating the model.The conclusions are as follows: Firstly,under the background of massive transfer of rural labor force,the socialized agro-mechanization service and the scale of land operation have a coupling and interactive relationship.On one hand,the scale of land operation demands agro-mechanization service and this requirement stimulates the supply of agro-mechanization service.On the other hand,its supply reacts on the scale of land operation.Secondly,along with the massive transfer of rural population and male labor force,the shortage of labor force for agricultural production and the improvement of life standard,farmers don't want to labor passively like before and attempt to reduce the investment of labor force.The introduction of agro-mechanization service is able to replace labor force,improve the efficiency and lower the cost of agricultural production.There are other reasons,such as guaranteeing the security of food supply,pushing the coupling development between the socialized agro-mechanization service and the scale of land operation forward.Thirdly,there are many influences affecting the coupling development of the socialized agro-mechanization service and the scale of land operation.The mutual promotions and mutual restrictions go hand in hand in the process of development which is in running-in period.Fourthly,by virtue of many efforts,such as the construction of a trading platform for the supply and demand of agro-mechanization service and its emergency system,the government can reduce the impacts of restraining factors,especially the external ones in the process of the coupling development between the socialized agro-mechanization service and the scale of land operation.The thesis puts forward some policy suggestions with the above analyses: Firstly,the appropriate scale of operation should be encouraged in varied ways to improve the leave of professionalization,standardization,mechanization and the efficiency of agricultural production.Secondly,a trading platform for the supply and demand of agro-mechanization service can be constructed by imitating stock trading platform.The constructions of the trading platform along with the cellphone App and the system of valuation and feedback need to be completed.The mobile internet can be employed fully to combine the trading of agro-mechanization service online with actual trading.In this manner,the cost of communication between farmers and owners of agricultural machine can be reduced.The using rate of agro-mechanization service can be enhanced.The problems,such as credit management problem can be overcome.Thirdly,the government regulates the development of socialized agro-mechanization service and accordingly establishes the emergency response mechanism.On one hand,to ensure the security of agricultural production,the government can use various methods,such as subsidizing or buying agro-mechanization service,to promote the development of local owners of agricultural machine and to enable the supply of agro-mechanization service to prevail its need slightly in the market.On the other hand,the government should establishes the emergency response system for agro-mechanization service.When the market doesn't function well,the external problems and extreme weather happen,part of redundant servers are allowed to exist in order to provide security fallback of agro-mechanization service for farmers. |
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