Study On Risk Assessment And Sharing Of Harbin Metro BOT Project Financing

Harbin Metro is China's first Alpine subway system under construction.In the context of actively promoting the PPP model in China,Harbin Metro use BOT financing model to solve the construction funds.The project has the characteristics of large investment scale,low yield,long payback period,and so on.And the environment is in constant change and development.Especially from the road network as a whole,China's urban rail transport network is almost all of the losses at present,in addition to the Hong Kong metro,Beijing Metro Line 4,Beijing Metro Airport Line and Shanghai Metro line.This is inconsistent with the goal of social capital to pursue economic value,is not conducive to attract social capital through BOT model.Under this background,taking the subway project under construction in Harbin as the research object,this paper analyzes the financing structure of BOT project in Harbin metro,and comprehensively identifies the financing risks,accurately evaluate and reasonably share the risks according to the characteristics of the design and construction of Harbin Metro and giving full consideration of Harbin is located in the alpine region,the passenger flow and revenue with seasonal sensitivity characteristics.On the basis of referring to the relevant literature at home and abroad,this paper analyzes the background of project financing.The check list method and fault tree analysis is used to identify risks combining the characteristics of financing risk of Harbin Metro BOT project.Then the system dynamics simulation analysis model is used to simulate the financing risk.Based on the results of simulation analysis,the evolutionary game model of financing risk of Harbin Metro BOT project is established.We can see that in the evolutionary process of risk sharing of the government and social investment institutions through the above analysis,the prospect value of social investment institutions,reward and punishment system of both sides in the game,and risk sharing ratio are the main factors influencing the selection of project financing strategies for both parties,and these factors have relationships with each other.