Study On The Risk Sharing In Highway BOT Project

With the unceasing development of economy in our country,the demand of the construction of highway is increasing.And it brings financing problems.As one of the financing ways of the highway construction,BOT mode has been widely used in the field of highway in our country.Therefore,the study of highway BOT mode has also gradually developed.Due to the complexity of highway BOT project risk factors and participants,risk allocation becomes the key to the success of the project.For now,in the theoretical study of the highway BOT project risk sharing,qualitative researches are more than quantitative researches.And the quantitative researches are not sufficient.Based on this,this article conducts a study on the risk sharing of highway BOT project.Via identifying risk factors,analyzing participants and the optimizing method of risk sharing,the risk sharing scheme is finally obtained.First of all,through the WBS-RBS and checklist method,the risk factors of the highway BOT project are identified.Through building the WBS-RBS matrix,risk factors in each phase of the project are analyzed.Then,according to the reality of our country,participants of highway BOT project and their risk sharing are analyzed.It is concluded that the risk sharing of investor and the government and the risk sharing of the project company and the operator are the keys to project risk sharing.On this basis,through the analysis of risk sharing principle and goal of the project,the project risk factors are initially allocated among participants,which concludes the preliminary scheme of risk sharing.For the risk factors two or more participants share,game models are built,which are aimed at calculating risk sharing ratio.For the investor and the government’s risk sharing,a game model is built on the base of Stahl-Rubinstein model.To improve the model,risk preference coefficient is introduced.By applying retroduction,the solution of the model is figured out.Based on the analysis of the solution,the impact of parameters on risk allocation proportion are analyzed.Second,for the risk sharing of project company and operator,a risk allocation model is built based on the principal-agent theory.To improve the model,supervision variable is introduced.By constructing social-welfare-maximize objective function,the risk-sharing proportion of operator is figured out.Through the analysis of the solution,the influence of parameters on the risk allocation proportion is analyzed.Finally,inorder to ensure the implementation of the risk sharing scheme,the process of risk sharing is constructed.And key measures which can make sure that the risk sharing scheme is carried out properly are proposed.