Factors Affecting The Price Of Gannan Navel Orange

Gannan navel orange as the only product in Jiangxi province,for the Ministry of Commerce nominated,geographic inventory AQSIQ Central European GIs Agreement negotiated logo products.Currently both Gannan navel orange planting area and output are located in the world,Ganzhou has become the largest navel orange main producing areas.Gannan navel orange industry has become a pillar industry for economic development and new countryside construction,it plays an important role in terms of farmers' income and rural labor employment.In our consumer price index continued rising and other fresh fruit sales prices such as apples,bananas rising,the the sale price of Gannan navel orange in the major markets has fallen,facing the "low price","hard sell".Gannan navel orange prices are low,fertility is not harvest,farmers' enthusiasm for production would suffer.Price is related to different participants' interest of Navel orange supply chain,especially the vital interest of the navel orange growers.Thus,to explore the influence factors of Gannan navel orange prices and find out the key factors,formulate relevant policies.It has an important significance in promoting the industry reform of Gannan navel orange supply side,maintaining sustained and healthy development of the whole industry and promoting farmers' income.Based on the relevant theory and research results,analyzing gannan navel orange industry development present situation and the change of gannan navel oranges prices from 2000 to2013.Through the analysis to find the factors affecting the price of gannan navel oranges,the empirical analysis to find out the key factors and influence degree,Combined with actual situation of industry,to put forward the corresponding policy recommendations to keeping an healthy and stable development of the industry.Through the research,obtained the following main conclusions:Firstly,using path analysis from the perspective of supply factors to study the factors affecting Gannan navel orange producer prices.The results showed that,the cost of production,navel orange production,natural disasters,exports and export prices affected Gannan navel orange producer prices.The exports and total production had a greater influence on the producer prices.In addition,it is concluded that the Gannan navel orange's has a bigger direct effect on gannan navel oranges producer price,production cost and production of Gannan navel oranges have a bigger indirect effect on producer price.Secondly,by using the VAR model to empirical study which factors influence consumer prices of Gannan navel orange from the perspective of demand factors.The results showed that,Gannan navel oranges consumer price is affected by its own previous price.urban residents disposable income,gross domestic product(GDP),apple price,banana price and the consumerprice index will affect price also.Among them,urban per capital disposable income of gannan navel oranges has the most effect.Followed by the gross domestic product(GDP),the influence degree in third place was banana price,apple prices and consumer price index is relatively small.Thirdly,using multiple regression model from the perspective of balancing supply and demand to study the factors affecting Gannan navel orange prices.It is found that the influence factors of supply and demand level affect the consumer price of gannan navel oranges,most of the factors belong to supply-side factors,less belong to demand-side factors,such as urban residents disposable income and alternative prices have significant impact.This shows that with the improvement of people's living standards,people's consumption demand is changing from survival needs to quality requirements.People pay more attention to healthy,pollution-free and safety products,not just the product sales price.Fourthly,using regression model to study the Gannan navel orange Price Transimission Relationship between Original and sale Market.If Gannan navel orange producer price change,it will cause the consumer price change in the same direction,and vice versa,Gannan navel orange producer prices still have a positive influence on the consumer prices for the next year.;as for the influence coefficient,the influence coefficient of gannan navel orange consumer prices on the producer prices is 1.07,is bigger than the influence coefficient 0.27 of gannan navel orange producer prices on consumer price,showing that gannan navel orange industrial concentration is not high.