Estimation Of Output Gap Based On Singular Spectrum Analysis And Analysis Of Influencing Factors

Potential output is known as full employment output.It means that in the condition of the use of the best technology,the lowest cost combination,and the labor level and capital utilization at the full employment level and the economy is at a reasonably stable price level,the economy society produces goods and supplies services to the utmost.The output gap is the difference between real and potential outputs.The output gap,an important indicator of macroeconomic regulation and control,is of great significance to the prevention of economic fluctuations and policy guidance.In this paper,the methods including HP?CF?BW and SSA,are used to estimate the output gap of China actual quarterly GDP between 1992 and 2015.In order to choose a better method,three criterions including the estimated stability,the predictability of inflation,and the turning point of historical events,were used.At the same time,in order to take monetary measures to deal with output gap issues,the TVPVAR model is used to analyze the dynamic impacts of the money supply,interest rate and inflation level on the output gap.The results show that:(1)Compared with the other three filtering methods,SSA method is better;the periodic sequences estimated by quarterly data,fluctuates more frequently;China is currently in the economic downturn stage and the output gap is negative in the continuous expansion which means that the problem of excess supply is outstanding.(2)The short-term effects of money supply on output gap in different periods are relatively close;The impact of money supply on the output gap in the recession period is stronger than other periods;The effect of interest rate on the output gap in the economic overheating period is weaker than other periods;The inflation has a positive effect on the output gap in the short term but with a negative effect in the medium and long term.