Study On The Supply Decisions Of Medium-scale Hog In Heilongjiang Province Based On Risk-aversion Perspective

In recent years,the country has paid great attention to the long-term sustainable development of the hog industry.In the documents issued in the past 2014-2018 years,the country has put forward the safeguard measures such as the scale of hog breeding,the stabilization of the hog production and the strengthening of the support of the breeding industry.Heilongjiang province has also put forward a series of documents to increase policy support for hog industry.The analysis of the risk aversion of the medium-scale hog(100-499 heads)producers and the supply decisions of medium-scale hog producers can provide a reference for the government to formulate the policy of stabilizing the medium-scale hog supply in Heilongjiang province from the perspective of the risk aversion of the hog producers.The mean production function and risk function of hog producers were regressive with Just-Pope seventh stochastic production function models in 76 households of 45 towns and towns,11 counties and cities,Heilongjiang province.The mean risk-aversion coefficients were calculated and the risk preference types were judged.Among the 76 hog producers,73 mean risk-aversion coefficients were positive that accounted for 96% of surveyed producers.The newborn animal weight and feed consumption passed the significance test of the risk function.The elastic values of the two were-1.3666 and 2.2169,respectively.The result shows that newborn animal weight and feed consumption affect medium-scale hog producers' degree of risk aversion,and the former is the risk-reducing input element,while the latter is the risk-increasing input element.According to the negative exponential utility function,the initial utility value and the adjusted utility value for the newborn animal price,feed price and the hog slaughter price,the effect of the change of utility value on the supply decisions of the hog producers are analyzed.The hog slaughter price fixed,hog producers may reduce or increase the hog slaughter amounts;the hog slaughter price rises 10%,the hog producers may maintain or increase the hog slaughter amounts;the hog slaughter price falls 10%,the hog producers may maintain or reduce the hog slaughter amounts.The result shows that changes of newborn animal price,feed price and hog slaughter price could affect the medium-scale hog producers' supply decisions via affecting their mean risk-aversion coefficients,profit and loss values and utility values.With the research of the existing scholars as a reference,in the light of the research object of medium-scale hog producers,the expression of risk-aversion coefficients of the medium-scale hog producers was adjusted;the negative exponential utility function was adjusted,and the range of hog slaughter price and the elements price was adjusted to compare between the initial utilityvalues and the adjusted utility values that reflects the change of supply decision.