Research On Predition And Control Of The Accident Rate Of Enterprise Casualties Based On System Dynamics Approach

Accident frequency is an important indicator to reflect the level of enterprise safety,and accident control is also one of the ultimate goals of enterprise safety management.Therefore,the enterprise makes a reasonable prediction of the accident rate in the future,which is of great significance to the enterprise's current safety investment decision.The modern enterprise is a complex system engineering.The changing demand for production and management has put forward new requirements to solve the problem of accident prediction.But the traditional method of accident rate prediction usually depends on historical data and lacks systematicness,so it is difficult to consider the structure of safety system and predict the accident systematically.As an important branch of management science and system science,system dynamics is modeled by objective world,and is analyzed by computer simulation.Based on the analysis of the relationship between enterprise accident rate prediction and safety system and the feedback loop of safety system,the basic modeling principles and framework of accident rate prediction are defined based on the method of system dynamics and the characteristics of enterprise safety system.Using system dynamics modeling theory and modeling technology and simulation software Vensim,we built a system of casualty accident rate prediction,including human resource subsystem,production subsystem and safety management subsystem.By conducting simulation simulation,the effect of security resource allocation on accident rate control in different schemes is analyzed.Results show that the accident rate prediction model established can reflect to some extent different safety investment decision-making scheme of enterprise million man-hour minor number,millions of severe number one thousand people each year,millions of deaths and injuries rate,serious injury rate of one thousand people a year,one thousand people a year mortality six indicators,help scientific research enterprise macro mechanism of casualty accident,and to the enterprise in order to reduce the accident rate and predict trend of accident and to carry out the dynamic safety investment decision has a certain reference value.