A Research On Borrowers' Default Activity In Lending Through Internet Platform Based On Macroeconomic Impact

In recent years,with the rapid development of domestic Internet finance,many Internet financial business models are on the rise.With the increasingly integration of Internet technology and financial business,Internet financial lending is emerged.Financial innovation form of P2P shows a strong development momentum.However,risks are accompanied with the rapid development.They include credit risk,market risk,operation risk,policy risk and other risks.Credit risk which means customer default rate is the main risk faced by Internet financial lending industry.The influence factors of credit risk are various.In recent years,with the deterioration of the macroeconomic and new macro-control policies,the uncertainty of economic fluctuation is bigger.Since financial industry is the core of macro economic development,we must keep a close eye on the macroeconomic trends.At the same time,we have to do research on the impact of macroeconomic factors on customer credit risk of Internet financial credit.In this way,Internet financial net credit enterprise can find direction in the ever-changing economic situation.They are also able to make effective measures to avoid risk.In this paper,we use customer default rate in Internet financial credit companies to describe customer credit risk.This essay classifies customers into working-class and private owners according to the source of income.Firstly,it uses overall customer loan default rate of Internet financial loan to select in terms of macroeconomic indicators.It then selects consumer price index(CPI),the medium and long term loan interest rate(IR)and purchasing managers' index(PMI)to depict macro economy.Based on the structural vector auto regression model,it investigates the influence of macroeconomic on different customers.The empirical result shows that customer credit risk of Internet financial credit is strongly sensitive to the changing of macroeconomic indicators.CPI,IR and PMI has a strong connection with customer default rate of Internet financial loan.CPI and PMI are the main factors influencing default rate of working class and private owner respectively.The rise of CPI can promote default rate of Internet financial net credit customer in the short-term.However,the effect is negative in the long run.The rise of IR has positive influence on Internet financial net credit defaults rate.By contrast,the response speed of the working class is quick and duration is short.PMI has an obvious positive impact on Internet financial net credit default rate.It has a larger impact on the private owner customer than working class in terms of effect and duration.China's Internet financial loan of customer default rate has a certain historical memory,no matter it is working class or private owner,but the influence is not obvious in the long run.The default rate of working class and private owner varies in terms of the impact of macroeconomic indicators.Overall,the response amplitude and duration of default rate of private owner is above working class.Finally,the essay gives policy recommendations according to the analysis results of research.